19714 Burle Oaks Ct · Atascocita, TX 77346

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 1981 7,475 sqft lot $125/sqft · 6% below area Est $265k · 6% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac lot in an established neighborhood, this home offers a functional layout and a private backyard pool perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space for meal prep and storage. The bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The primary suite includes an en-suite bath with a walk-in shower. Step outside to enjoy the backyard with a sparkling pool and space for outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major roadways, this property offers comfort, convenience, and opportunity.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• En-suite bath
• Walk-in shower

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• PRIVATE BACKYARD POOL
• EN-SUITE BATH
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• BACKYARD WITH A SPARKLING POOL
• SPACE FOR OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-272 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,008 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,381
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -5.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19922 Big Timber Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,035 (+1%)	1mo	$249,900	$123	73
5514 Fawn Trail Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,863 (-7%)	3mo	$250,000	$134	72
20207 Misty Pines Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,906 (-5%)	2mo	$199,900	$105	66
20022 River Brook Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,904 (-5%)	4mo	$314,995	$165	65
5702 Deer Timbers Trl	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,189 (+9%)	4mo	$289,900	$132	60
20113 Dawn Mist Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,951 (-3%)	5mo	$249,800	$128	60
19511 Oak Center Ct	0.51mi	3/2.5	2,154 (+7%)	6mo	$250,000	$116	57
20018 Big Timber Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,755 (-13%)	3mo	$219,800	$125	55
19311 Forest Fern Ct	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,276 (+13%)	1mo	$299,900	$132	51
20843 Fawn Timber Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,840 (-8%)	3mo	$305,000	$166	51
5811 Forest Timbers Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,292 (+14%)	1mo	$264,500	$115	44
20211 Big Timber Ct	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,721 (-14%)	0mo	$204,000	$119	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-41,688
• Equity at exit: $60,897

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-61,179
• Equity at exit: $64,417

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,211 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$491 /mo · $5,891/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,555

Max offer price $202,008

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-130	-5% $-201	+0% $-272	+5% $-342	+10% $-413
Rent	-10% $-446	-5% $-359	+0% $-272	+5% $-184	+10% $-97
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-208	base $-272	+0.5pp $-336	+1.0pp $-402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	44d	1	0.20mi
19322 Forest Fern Ct Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2626	$3,500	$1.33	44d	1	0.36mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	44d	1	0.54mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	44d	1	0.93mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	2d	16	0.96mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	44d	1	0.96mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	44d	1	0.98mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	22d	1	1.00mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,856	$1.23	2d	1	1.03mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	6d	1	1.06mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	44d	1	1.12mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	22d	1	1.15mi
6731 Auburn Oak Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2433	$2,345	$0.96	22d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    listed $275,000 Active 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac lot in an established neighborhood, this home offers a functional layout and a private backyard pool perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space for meal prep and storage. The bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. The primary suite includes an en-suite bath with a walk-in shower. Step outside to enjoy the backyard with a sparkling pool and space for outdoor enjoyment. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major roadways, this property offers comfort, convenience, and opportunity.

16. 2024-02-04
    status Active
17. 2024-01-10
    listed $293,000 Active
18. 2021-03-12
    soldstatus
19. 2017-09-15
    soldstatus
20. 2017-09-14
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2017-08-18
    status Pending
22. 2017-08-05
    status Option Pending
23. 2017-07-31
    price $214,999
24. 2017-06-15
    price $225,000
25. 2017-05-26
    listed $238,000 Active
26. 2005-10-27
    historical
27. 2005-07-18
    listed $113,900
28. 2001-07-10
    soldstatus
29. 2001-07-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,891 · $491/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,891 · $491/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,891
• − Insurance: −$2,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,123
• − Management: −$2,123
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,478
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,795
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,465/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+141.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-04 Relisted — GTAR
• 2024-01-10 Listed $293,000 GTAR
• 2021-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-08-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-08-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-07-31 Price Changed $214,999 HARMLS
• 2017-06-15 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2017-05-26 Listed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2005-10-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-07-18 Listed $113,900 HARMLS
• 2001-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-07-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,891 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.