3530 Shadow St · Jacksonville, FL 32254

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,165 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1960 7,840 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully Remodeled 4-Bedroom Home with Study - Prime Location! This tastefully rehabbed and fully remodeled concrete block home features 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and a versatile bonus study that can easily be converted into a 5th bedroom. Bright and airy with an open layout, this home offers plenty of natural light and a fresh, contemporary feel throughout. Located in a highly desirable area, you'll enjoy the convenience of being close to everything — shopping, dining, schools, and major highways. Whether you're looking for a family home or a smart investment, this one checks all the boxes.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Newer roof
• New electrical

Tags

• FULLY MODERN RENOVATION
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER HVAC
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking available
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Used for residential purposes
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 0.18 acres; No private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,484/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 882% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 11844% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $215k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,373 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.75%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1064 Woodstock Ave	0.37mi	4/1.0	1,152 (-1%)	3mo	$126,400	$110	75
1050 Hood Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,051 (-10%)	4mo	$73,000	$69	57
3125 3rd St Cir S	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (+5%)	4mo	$148,500	$121	56
1056 Hood Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (-12%)	2mo	$154,500	$151	55
3242 Deason Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,197 (+3%)	2mo	$223,500	$187	54
5125 Abel Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,264 (+8%)	7mo	$165,000	$131	48
3461 Rockwood Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,222 (+5%)	2mo	$67,000	$55	47
3036 Detroit Cir	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+7%)	10mo	$132,000	$106	44
5140 Columbus Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,314 (+13%)	8mo	$165,000	$126	40
3058 2nd St Cir	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (+14%)	5mo	$160,000	$120	39
1227 Dena St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,033 (-11%)	5mo	$55,000	$53	37
1095 Detroit St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,009 (-13%)	7mo	$112,675	$112	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.41% appreciation · 1.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $16,674
• Equity at exit: $101,709

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $67,847
• Equity at exit: $160,779

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32254

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,720/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,722

Max offer price $181,748

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-67	-5% $-127	+0% $-188	+5% $-249	+10% $-310
Rent	-10% $-305	-5% $-247	+0% $-188	+5% $-130	+10% $-71
Rate	-1.0pp $-80	-0.5pp $-134	base $-188	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-301

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1021 Woodstock Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,495	$1.48	24d	1	0.44mi
1021 Woodstock Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,495	$1.48	8d	1	0.44mi
1305 Melson Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,399	$1.14	21d	1	0.45mi
3450 Lowell Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,578	$1.31	24d	1	0.50mi
3055 2nd Street Cir Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,340	$1.28	18d	1	0.58mi
3303 Broadway Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,550	$1.45	4d	1	0.63mi
3034 Detroit Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,399	$1.08	24d	1	0.64mi
1227 Dena St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1033	$1,325	$1.28	24d	1	0.65mi
1612 Alfen St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	945	$1,113	$1.18	8d	1	0.69mi
5148 Cain Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,306	$1.18	22d	1	0.69mi
5364 Mary Budd Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	836	$1,225	$1.47	3d	1	0.73mi
2965 Sunset St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1056	$1,375	$1.30	8d	1	0.74mi
2965 Sunset St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,375	$1.30	4d	1	0.74mi
1037 Detroit St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	2d	1	0.74mi
2939 W 6th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$1,225	$0.97	2d	1	0.79mi
2902 W 5th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,050	$0.76	8d	1	0.85mi
3012 Imperial St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1089	$1,395	$1.28	24d	1	0.86mi
3078 W 15th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1128	$1,200	$1.06	24d	1	0.96mi
2939 W 11th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1086	$1,295	$1.19	24d	1	0.96mi
3004 W 16th St Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,526	$1.05	24d	1	1.08mi
5239 Potomac Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,432	$1.03	8d	1	1.26mi
3688 Dillon St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,421	$1.16	24d	1	1.33mi
5141 Shenandoah Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	2d	4	1.39mi
3515 Dignan St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	915	$1,036	$1.13	3d	1	1.45mi
3352 Dillon St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$1,372	$1.12	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-12
   historical $1,800
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $1,800
3. 2026-02-26
   listed $215,000 Active
4. 2025-09-08
   historical 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Beautifully Remodeled 4-Bedroom Home with Study - Prime Location! This tastefully rehabbed and fully remodeled concrete block home features 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and a versatile bonus study that can easily be converted into a 5th bedroom. Bright and airy with an open layout, this home offers plenty of natural light and a fresh, contemporary feel throughout. Located in a highly desirable area, you'll enjoy the convenience of being close to everything — shopping, dining, schools, and major highways. Whether you're looking for a family home or a smart investment, this one checks all the boxes.

5. 2025-09-05
   historical $1,800
6. 2025-08-15
   listed $1,800
7. 2025-06-13
   listed $215,000 Active 628-char remark

   Show marketing remark (628 chars)

   Beautifully Remodeled 4-Bedroom Home with Study - Prime Location! This tastefully rehabbed and fully remodeled concrete block home features 4 spacious bedrooms, 2 modern bathrooms, and a versatile bonus study that can easily be converted into a 5th bedroom. Bright and airy with an open layout, this home offers plenty of natural light and a fresh, contemporary feel throughout. Located in a highly desirable area, you'll enjoy the convenience of being close to everything — shopping, dining, schools, and major highways. Whether you're looking for a family home or a smart investment, this one checks all the boxes.

8. 2024-10-04
   soldstatus $84,900 Closed 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Great opportunity for you in Biltmore! This concrete block home with additional bedroom and one and a half bathroom is just waiting for the right person to make it shine again. Don't miss this one to add to your portfolio or your next fix/flip. AGENTS READ PRIVATE REMARKS, RETURN FORM FOR SHOWINGS-NO BLIND OFFERS

9. 2024-09-12
   status Pending 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Great opportunity for you in Biltmore! This concrete block home with additional bedroom and one and a half bathroom is just waiting for the right person to make it shine again. Don't miss this one to add to your portfolio or your next fix/flip. AGENTS READ PRIVATE REMARKS, RETURN FORM FOR SHOWINGS-NO BLIND OFFERS

10. 2024-08-08
    price $89,900 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Great opportunity for you in Biltmore! This concrete block home with additional bedroom and one and a half bathroom is just waiting for the right person to make it shine again. Don't miss this one to add to your portfolio or your next fix/flip. AGENTS READ PRIVATE REMARKS, RETURN FORM FOR SHOWINGS-NO BLIND OFFERS

11. 2024-06-26
    price $109,900 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Great opportunity for you in Biltmore! This concrete block home with additional bedroom and one and a half bathroom is just waiting for the right person to make it shine again. Don't miss this one to add to your portfolio or your next fix/flip. AGENTS READ PRIVATE REMARKS, RETURN FORM FOR SHOWINGS-NO BLIND OFFERS

12. 2024-06-14
    status Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Great opportunity for you in Biltmore! This concrete block home with additional bedroom and one and a half bathroom is just waiting for the right person to make it shine again. Don't miss this one to add to your portfolio or your next fix/flip. AGENTS READ PRIVATE REMARKS, RETURN FORM FOR SHOWINGS-NO BLIND OFFERS

13. 2024-04-15
    status Pending 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Great opportunity for you in Biltmore! This concrete block home with additional bedroom and one and a half bathroom is just waiting for the right person to make it shine again. Don't miss this one to add to your portfolio or your next fix/flip. AGENTS READ PRIVATE REMARKS, RETURN FORM FOR SHOWINGS-NO BLIND OFFERS

14. 2024-03-27
    price $119,900 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Great opportunity for you in Biltmore! This concrete block home with additional bedroom and one and a half bathroom is just waiting for the right person to make it shine again. Don't miss this one to add to your portfolio or your next fix/flip. AGENTS READ PRIVATE REMARKS, RETURN FORM FOR SHOWINGS-NO BLIND OFFERS

15. 2024-02-20
    listed $129,900 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    BUYERS FINANCING FELL THROUGH. Great opportunity for you in Biltmore! This concrete block home with additional bedroom and one and a half bathroom is just waiting for the right person to make it shine again. Don't miss this one to add to your portfolio or your next fix/flip. AGENTS READ PRIVATE REMARKS, RETURN FORM FOR SHOWINGS-NO BLIND OFFERS

16. 2021-11-09
    soldstatus $15,620,200
17. 2012-05-25
    historical
18. 2012-05-18
    soldstatus $18,000
19. 2012-05-07
    listed $29,800
20. 2010-04-23
    historical
21. 2009-04-23
    listed $74,000
22. 2005-08-17
    soldstatus $76,500
23. 1970-06-04
    soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 3.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,720
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,424
• − Management: −$1,424
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,473
• After-tax cash flow: $-786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,927
• Household income: $34,953
• Rent vs Own: 50.2% rent · 49.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 882.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Current HPI: 282.2981
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.70%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-86.7% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Rental Removed $1,800 Avail
• 2026-04-10 Listed for Rent $1,800 Avail
• 2026-02-26 Listed $215,000 realMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-09-05 Rental Removed $1,800 Avail
• 2025-08-15 Listed for Rent $1,800 Avail
• 2025-06-13 Listed $215,000 realMLS
• 2024-10-04 Sold (MLS) $84,900 realMLS
• 2024-09-12 Pending — realMLS
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $89,900 realMLS
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $109,900 realMLS
• 2024-06-14 Relisted — realMLS
• 2024-04-15 Pending — realMLS
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $119,900 realMLS
• 2024-02-20 Listed $129,900 realMLS
• 2021-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $15,620,200 Public Records
• 2012-05-25 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2012-05-18 Sold (MLS) $18,000 realMLS
• 2012-05-07 Listed $29,800 realMLS
• 2010-04-23 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2009-04-23 Listed $74,000 realMLS
• 2005-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records
• 1970-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,720 · -21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.