317 Webb St · Smithville, TX 78957

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1954 4,922 sqft lot $181/sqft · 38% below area Est $265k · 38% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House is approximately 912 sqft and was built in 1954. This pier & beam home was remodeled in 2025 to include: new 30-yr dimensional roof shingles, hardi-plank siding, insulation, double pane windows, interior & exterior paint & kitchen appliances, including frost-free refrigerator and electric cooktop stove/oven & water heater. 3 total bedrooms & 1 bathroom. Attached carport includes large lockable storeroom with w/ d connections. Carpet was replaced with vinyl plank flooring a few years ago.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Kitchen appliances
• Pier beam home

Tags

• PIER BEAM HOME
• REMODELED
• HARDI PLANK SIDING
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• INTERIOR EXTERIOR PAINT
• KITCHEN APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.0% in Smithville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#577 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Smithville ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #333 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.69%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,417
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -37.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300 Eagleston St	0.67mi	3/1.0	900 (-1%)	9mo	$170,000	$189	59
202 Marburger St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,038 (+14%)	9mo	$159,000	$153	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,239
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,538
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78957

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,018/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $274	-5% $227	+0% $181	+5% $134	+10% $87
Rent	-10% $52	-5% $116	+0% $181	+5% $245	+10% $309
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $222	base $181	+0.5pp $138	+1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
801 Bishop St Smithville, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,550	$1.48	44d	1	0.64mi
505 Colorado St Smithville, TX	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,990	$1.79	8d	1	0.88mi
809 Burleson St Smithville, TX	2.0	1.0	1074	$1,350	$1.26	44d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,000 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,000 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,000 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $177,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $177,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $177,000 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $177,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $177,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    price $177,000 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    House is approximately 912 sqft and was built in 1954. This pier & beam home was remodeled in 2025 to include: new 30-yr dimensional roof shingles, hardi-plank siding, insulation, double pane windows, interior & exterior paint & kitchen appliances, including frost-free refrigerator and electric cooktop stove/oven & water heater. 3 total bedrooms & 1 bathroom. Attached carport includes large lockable storeroom with w/ d connections. Carpet was replaced with vinyl plank flooring a few years ago.

15. 2026-01-14
    listed $189,000 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    House is approximately 912 sqft and was built in 1954. This pier & beam home was remodeled in 2025 to include: new 30-yr dimensional roof shingles, hardi-plank siding, insulation, double pane windows, interior & exterior paint & kitchen appliances, including frost-free refrigerator and electric cooktop stove/oven & water heater. 3 total bedrooms & 1 bathroom. Attached carport includes large lockable storeroom with w/ d connections. Carpet was replaced with vinyl plank flooring a few years ago.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,018 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,001/yr (+$83/mo · 49.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,018
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,559
• − Management: −$1,559
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$519
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$125
• After-tax cash flow: $2,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smithville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840550
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,794
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4776
• State rank: #333 of 826 in TX

Livability — Smithville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #577
• US rank: #11003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,282

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 19% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 275.3765
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $177,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $189,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,018 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.