6030 Horizon Sky Rd · Cove, TX 77523

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2018 5,488 sqft lot $142/sqft · 10% below area Est $222k · 10% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This hidden gem in Joseph’s Cove is brimming with potential and ready for your personal touch! Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a convenient 1-car attached garage, this home offers a functional layout with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Downstairs, you’ll find a generously sized living room—perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating the open-concept space of your dreams. With a little TLC, this property could truly shine and become the perfect place to call home or a fantastic investment opportunity.

Key facts

• 5,488 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2018

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $160 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.3% in Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.44%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,907
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -9.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5739 Rainbow Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-2%)	1mo	$215,000	$156	83
5838 Golden Cove Rd	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,404 (0%)	10mo	$220,000	$157	81
6011 Treasure Cove Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-1%)	11mo	$257,000	$185	80
5943 Snapping Turtle Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-5%)	2mo	$225,000	$169	80
6022 Treasure Cove Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-5%)	9mo	$239,900	$180	76
6023 Treasure Cove Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-5%)	12mo	$235,000	$176	72
5523 Rainbow Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-1%)	9mo	$243,900	$175	69
5831 Littoral Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-5%)	7mo	$233,900	$175	66
14503 Sweet Water Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+8%)	3mo	$280,000	$185	65
411 Ruby Ford Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+0%)	1mo	$254,970	$181	65
6810 Bens Lndg	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	2mo	$259,140	$171	54
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+13%)	1mo	$299,100	$188	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,300
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,710
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,965/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,784

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	19d	1	0.44mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	1d	1	0.72mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	3d	1	0.86mi
55 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,195	$1.26	17d	1	0.86mi
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	43d	1	0.91mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	3d	1	0.91mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	15d	1	0.91mi
5006 Creekside Ave Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,081	$1.34	24d	1	0.95mi
8017 FM 3180 Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,450	$1.34	43d	1	1.07mi
4814 Emerald Bay Cir Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1666	$2,191	$1.32	22d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-03-20
    listed $200,000 Active 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    This hidden gem in Joseph’s Cove is brimming with potential and ready for your personal touch! Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a convenient 1-car attached garage, this home offers a functional layout with all bedrooms located upstairs for added privacy. Downstairs, you’ll find a generously sized living room—perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating the open-concept space of your dreams. With a little TLC, this property could truly shine and become the perfect place to call home or a fantastic investment opportunity.

15. 2018-06-15
    soldstatus Sold 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    This thoughtfully designed 2-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and boasts over $10,000 worth of upgrades! Features include energy efficient appliances, upgraded wood cabinets, and brushed nickel hardware. The Beech floor plan also showcases a large family room that opens up to a sizeable dining area and chef-ready kitchen perfect for entertaining guests. Upstairs, you will discover a private master retreat complete with a spacious walk-in closet, and two additional bedrooms.

16. 2018-04-02
    status Pending 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    This thoughtfully designed 2-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and boasts over $10,000 worth of upgrades! Features include energy efficient appliances, upgraded wood cabinets, and brushed nickel hardware. The Beech floor plan also showcases a large family room that opens up to a sizeable dining area and chef-ready kitchen perfect for entertaining guests. Upstairs, you will discover a private master retreat complete with a spacious walk-in closet, and two additional bedrooms.

17. 2018-04-02
    status Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    This thoughtfully designed 2-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and boasts over $10,000 worth of upgrades! Features include energy efficient appliances, upgraded wood cabinets, and brushed nickel hardware. The Beech floor plan also showcases a large family room that opens up to a sizeable dining area and chef-ready kitchen perfect for entertaining guests. Upstairs, you will discover a private master retreat complete with a spacious walk-in closet, and two additional bedrooms.

18. 2018-03-28
    status Pending 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    This thoughtfully designed 2-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and boasts over $10,000 worth of upgrades! Features include energy efficient appliances, upgraded wood cabinets, and brushed nickel hardware. The Beech floor plan also showcases a large family room that opens up to a sizeable dining area and chef-ready kitchen perfect for entertaining guests. Upstairs, you will discover a private master retreat complete with a spacious walk-in closet, and two additional bedrooms.

19. 2018-03-23
    listed $172,900 Active 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    This thoughtfully designed 2-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms and boasts over $10,000 worth of upgrades! Features include energy efficient appliances, upgraded wood cabinets, and brushed nickel hardware. The Beech floor plan also showcases a large family room that opens up to a sizeable dining area and chef-ready kitchen perfect for entertaining guests. Upstairs, you will discover a private master retreat complete with a spacious walk-in closet, and two additional bedrooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,965 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$695/yr (+$58/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,965
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,318
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$316
• After-tax cash flow: $2,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2018-06-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-04-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2018-03-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-03-23 Listed $172,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+27.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,965 · -7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.