11050 Pelican Hill Ln · Cleveland, TX 77327

$255,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,204 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 6,307 sqft lot $116/sqft · 6% below area Est $271k · 6% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully designed two-story home in the golf course community of Grand Oaks Reserve. Built in 2023, this spacious home offers over 2,200 square feet, making it perfect for anyone needing extra space for a home office, guest room, or playroom. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living space, creating a bright and connected feel, while a study on the first floor gives you a quiet place to work or unwind. Upstairs, you’ll find a game room, offering the perfect second living area. The primary suite includes a spacious layout with a walk-in closet, and the additional bedrooms provide plenty of room for family or guests. Step outside to a large backyard, perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings at home. Located in Grand Oaks Reserve, residents enjoy access to a golf course, clubhouse, pool, splash pad, parks, and more. If you’ve been looking for a newer home with space, functionality, and community amenities, this one is worth a look.

Key facts

• 6,307 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,719 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.13%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,692
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -5.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10019 Oakland Hills Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0	2,157 (-2%)	7mo	$315,990	$146	77
30200 Kingston Heath Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,100 (-5%)	10mo	$283,900	$135	72
10280 Cabo Del Sol Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,065 (-6%)	9mo	$321,990	$156	70
10100 Oakland Hills Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,014 (-9%)	5mo	$301,990	$150	67
30271 Kingston Heath Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,491 (+13%)	7mo	$275,000	$110	65
20005 Wade Hampton Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,338 (+6%)	8mo	$289,000	$124	65
10238 Prairie Dunes Ln	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,922 (-13%)	7mo	$285,990	$149	64
10120 Oakland Hills Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,974 (-10%)	1mo	$260,000	$132	62
10338 Prairie Dunes Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-14%)	7mo	$266,900	$140	58
40122 Spyglass Hill Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,316 (+5%)	4mo	$303,900	$131	58
40132 Spyglass Hill Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,005 (-9%)	8mo	$274,900	$137	44
111 Cliffbrook Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (-11%)	10mo	$299,900	$153	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-46,872
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-40,706
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$464 /mo · $5,564/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,477

Max offer price $232,643

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11040 Pelican Hill Ln Cleveland, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$2,200	$0.85	2d	1	0.03mi
909 Jefferson Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,870	$1.17	1d	1	0.85mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $255,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $255,000 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully designed two-story home in the golf course community of Grand Oaks Reserve. Built in 2023, this spacious home offers over 2,200 square feet, making it perfect for anyone needing extra space for a home office, guest room, or playroom. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living space, creating a bright and connected feel, while a study on the first floor gives you a quiet place to work or unwind. Upstairs, you’ll find a game room, offering the perfect second living area. The primary suite includes a spacious layout with a walk-in closet, and the additional bedrooms provide plenty of room for family or guests. Step outside to a large backyard, perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings at home. Located in Grand Oaks Reserve, residents enjoy access to a golf course, clubhouse, pool, splash pad, parks, and more. If you’ve been looking for a newer home with space, functionality, and community amenities, this one is worth a look.

15. 2026-04-30
    status Active 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully designed two-story home in the golf course community of Grand Oaks Reserve. Built in 2023, this spacious home offers over 2,200 square feet, making it perfect for anyone needing extra space for a home office, guest room, or playroom. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living space, creating a bright and connected feel, while a study on the first floor gives you a quiet place to work or unwind. Upstairs, you’ll find a game room, offering the perfect second living area. The primary suite includes a spacious layout with a walk-in closet, and the additional bedrooms provide plenty of room for family or guests. Step outside to a large backyard, perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings at home. Located in Grand Oaks Reserve, residents enjoy access to a golf course, clubhouse, pool, splash pad, parks, and more. If you’ve been looking for a newer home with space, functionality, and community amenities, this one is worth a look.

16. 2026-04-16
    historical 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully designed two-story home in the golf course community of Grand Oaks Reserve. Built in 2023, this spacious home offers over 2,200 square feet, making it perfect for anyone needing extra space for a home office, guest room, or playroom. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living space, creating a bright and connected feel, while a study on the first floor gives you a quiet place to work or unwind. Upstairs, you’ll find a game room, offering the perfect second living area. The primary suite includes a spacious layout with a walk-in closet, and the additional bedrooms provide plenty of room for family or guests. Step outside to a large backyard, perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings at home. Located in Grand Oaks Reserve, residents enjoy access to a golf course, clubhouse, pool, splash pad, parks, and more. If you’ve been looking for a newer home with space, functionality, and community amenities, this one is worth a look.

17. 2026-04-16
    historical $265,000 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully designed two-story home in the golf course community of Grand Oaks Reserve. Built in 2023, this spacious home offers over 2,200 square feet, making it perfect for anyone needing extra space for a home office, guest room, or playroom. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living space, creating a bright and connected feel, while a study on the first floor gives you a quiet place to work or unwind. Upstairs, you’ll find a game room, offering the perfect second living area. The primary suite includes a spacious layout with a walk-in closet, and the additional bedrooms provide plenty of room for family or guests. Step outside to a large backyard, perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings at home. Located in Grand Oaks Reserve, residents enjoy access to a golf course, clubhouse, pool, splash pad, parks, and more. If you’ve been looking for a newer home with space, functionality, and community amenities, this one is worth a look.

18. 2024-06-11
    soldstatus Sold 42-char remark

    Show marketing remark (42 chars)

    * * This home is under construction. * *

19. 2024-05-21
    status Pending 42-char remark

    Show marketing remark (42 chars)

    * * This home is under construction. * *

20. 2024-04-28
    price $215,990 42-char remark

    Show marketing remark (42 chars)

    * * This home is under construction. * *

21. 2024-04-24
    price $235,990 42-char remark

    Show marketing remark (42 chars)

    * * This home is under construction. * *

22. 2024-03-27
    price $245,990 42-char remark

    Show marketing remark (42 chars)

    * * This home is under construction. * *

23. 2024-03-23
    price $248,990 42-char remark

    Show marketing remark (42 chars)

    * * This home is under construction. * *

24. 2024-03-08
    listed $244,990 Active 42-char remark

    Show marketing remark (42 chars)

    * * This home is under construction. * *

25. 2024-02-29
    historical
26. 2024-02-24
    price $238,990
27. 2024-01-24
    price $248,990
28. 2024-01-19
    price $253,990
29. 2024-01-19
    listed $263,990 Active
30. 2024-01-18
    historical
31. 2023-10-23
    listed $263,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,564 · $464/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,564 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$5,564
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,225
• − Management: −$2,225
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$5,784
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,388
• After-tax cash flow: $-131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home in Grand Oaks Reserve is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It's a great investment opportunity with potential for increased value through exterior painting and gutter cleaning.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $265,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-04-28 Price Changed $215,990 HARMLS
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed $235,990 HARMLS
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $245,990 HARMLS
• 2024-03-23 Price Changed $248,990 HARMLS
• 2024-03-08 Listed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2024-02-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-24 Price Changed $238,990 HARMLS
• 2024-01-24 Price Changed $248,990 HARMLS
• 2024-01-19 Price Changed $253,990 HARMLS
• 2024-01-19 Listed $263,990 HARMLS
• 2024-01-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-10-23 Listed $263,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+194.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,564 · +170.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.