5630 Shelford Birch Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$194,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $85/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Avalon Ridge Community Assoc. Inc; Annual association fee of $1,025

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story entry; First floor living; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom — First floor; Bedroom — First floor (11 x 10); Bedroom — First floor (10 x 10); Bedroom — First floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $194,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $243,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,000
• List price: $194,990
• Delta: -21.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5623 Shelford Birch Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (-12%)	1mo	$241,500	$171	73
15435 Glinton Farm Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,412 (-12%)	1mo	$244,500	$173	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-54,660
• Equity at exit: $36,232

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-82,506
• Equity at exit: $21,010

Cash invested: $68,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,274
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$304 /mo · $3,645/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,233

Max offer price $221,719

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $21	-5% $-63	+0% $-147	+5% $-231	+10% $-315
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-228	+0% $-147	+5% $-66	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-25	-0.5pp $-85	base $-147	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,750
• Closing costs: $7,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 626-char remark

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

2. 2026-06-18
   days on marketlisting id $194,990 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

3. 2026-06-17
   price $194,990 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,990 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,990 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,990 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,990 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,990 Active 50 DOM

   Show marketing remark (403 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $189,990 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $193,040 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $193,040 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $193,040 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $193,040 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $193,040 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $193,040 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $203,590 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2026-05-14
    price $203,590 514-char remark
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $206,990 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

19. 2026-05-04
    price $206,990 514-char remark
20. 2026-04-28
    price $216,840 514-char remark
21. 2026-04-25
    price $226,690 514-char remark
22. 2026-04-20
    price $229,990 514-char remark
23. 2026-04-20
    listed $238,990 Active 514-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,612
• − Property taxes: −$3,645
• − Insurance: −$1,215
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,965
• − Management: −$1,965
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$7,069
• Taxable loss: −$5,926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,422
• After-tax cash flow: $-343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Installing a smart thermostat — Energy-efficient systems can lower utility costs and appeal to eco-conscious buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Installing a smart thermostat — Energy-efficient systems can lower utility costs and appeal to eco-conscious buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $194,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $194,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listed $194,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $189,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $193,040 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $193,040 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $203,590 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $203,590 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $206,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $206,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $216,840 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $226,690 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $238,990 HARMLS