1840 Arrowhead Dr · Douglas, AZ 85607

$24,997

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 1975 3,345 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unaffixed mobile home on lot in Sunspot South - inexpensive opportunity for investor or first time buyer - Seller has 3 other properties in Sunspot buy one or all four. Bonded title process started. Owner/Agent

Key facts

• 3,345 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 3,345 (source: assessor)
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Metal siding and wood frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Dirt front and dirt back yard; City-maintained road access; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (total 2 bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Refrigerator included
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $574 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($922 rent vs $25k).
• Cap rate 33.9% vs local median 4.3% in Douglas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#39 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, employment F.
• Douglas Unified District (4174) (town): math 9% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #209 of 249 in AZ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Joe Carlson Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 419 students, 87% FRL); Paul H Huber Jr High School (math 9% / reading 28%, grade F, #140 of 218 statewide, top 65%, 436 students, 82% FRL); Douglas High School (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #220 of 381 statewide, top 58%, 1,405 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $25k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,997

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.45%
• DSCR: 5.38
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $12,480
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1810 Tomahawk Dr	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+3%)	5mo	$20,000	$25	79
1840 Arrowhead Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-2%)	22mo	$12,500	$16	72
1830 Arrowhead Dr	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	768 (-2%)	22mo	$12,500	$16	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 99.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.65×
• Total profit: $32,524
• Equity at exit: $3,727

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.78×
• Total profit: $75,422
• Equity at exit: $2,161

Cash invested: $6,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85607

• Active inventory: 163
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $922 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $147/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$194
• Net cashflow: $574

Break-even live

Break-even rent $195

Max offer price $24,997

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,249
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1955 E 8th St Apt 1 Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$775	$1.11	44d	1	0.79mi
1134 E 23rd St Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	44d	1	1.01mi
430 N Christine Ave Douglas, AZ	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,300	$1.21	44d	1	1.05mi
1165 E 10th St Unit 3 Douglas, AZ	3.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	44d	1	1.13mi
938 E 12th St Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	731	$795	$1.09	44d	1	1.22mi
902 E 13th St Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	44d	1	1.24mi
703 E 13th St Douglas, AZ	2.0	1.0	1125	$1,000	$0.89	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $24,997 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,997 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,997 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,997 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,997 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 418-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $24,997 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $147 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $165 · $14/mo
• Expected delta: +$18/yr (+$1/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥99°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$147
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$885
• − Management: −$885
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $6,889
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,653
• After-tax cash flow: $5,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Douglas Unified District (4174)
• NCES district ID: 0402530
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $29,006
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9577
• State rank: #209 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Douglas

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #7635

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,009

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 45% White 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 85%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 74% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.92%
• Current HPI: 147.0847
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $24,997 ARMLS
• 2024-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records
• 2024-08-20 Sold (MLS) $12,500 ARMLS
• 2024-08-02 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-06-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-06-19 Listed $12,500 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $147 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.