6455 Overlook Dr · Houston, TX 77041

$199,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,003 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1966 8,450 sqft lot $100/sqft · 31% below area Est $290k · 31% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very unique property with lots of bedrooms for big family or Investment

Key facts

• 8,450 sq ft lot
• Built 1966
• Listed 108 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (34.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 171 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,489 (34.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.89%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,134
• List price: $199,500
• Delta: -31.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11118 Cedarview Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,919 (-4%)	2mo	$249,900	$130	81
11143 Sherry Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	2,034 (+2%)	24mo	$345,000	$170	63
11111 Cedarview Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (-13%)	18mo	$327,000	$187	46
11002 Melba Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (-11%)	14mo	$300,000	$168	46
11018 Cedarview Ln	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,704 (-15%)	15mo	$255,000	$150	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.47% appreciation · 0.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-48,525
• Equity at exit: $43,699

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-80,358
• Equity at exit: $42,188

Cash invested: $55,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77041

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,907 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,031/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,395

Max offer price $131,489

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,875
• Closing costs: $5,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12416 W Little York Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,849	$1.20	19d	1	1.03mi
12416 W Little York Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,849	$1.20	18d	1	1.03mi
12410 W Little York Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1147	$1,779	$1.55	1d	16	1.05mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,500 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,500 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,500 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,500 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,500 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,500 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,500 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,500 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,500 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,500 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,500 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,500 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,500 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,500 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $199,500 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Very unique property with lots of bedrooms for big family or Investment

16. 2026-04-29
    price $199,995 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Very unique property with lots of bedrooms for big family or Investment

17. 2026-04-16
    price $209,995 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Very unique property with lots of bedrooms for big family or Investment

18. 2026-04-08
    price $219,995 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Very unique property with lots of bedrooms for big family or Investment

19. 2026-03-28
    price $239,995 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Very unique property with lots of bedrooms for big family or Investment

20. 2026-03-23
    price $269,995 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Very unique property with lots of bedrooms for big family or Investment

21. 2026-03-02
    listed $279,995 Active 71-char remark

    Show marketing remark (71 chars)

    Very unique property with lots of bedrooms for big family or Investment

22. 2025-07-30
    soldstatus Closed 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Investor Special! Great opportunity in Hilltop Acres! This property is situated on a spacious 8,276 sq ft lot. Ideal for investors or handy man special looking to renovate or flip. Located in a quiet, family-friendly neighborhood with easy access to parks, shopping, and major highways. Plenty of room to bring your own creativity to this versatile property.

23. 2025-07-08
    listed $279,995 Active 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Investor Special! Great opportunity in Hilltop Acres! This property is situated on a spacious 8,276 sq ft lot. Ideal for investors or handy man special looking to renovate or flip. Located in a quiet, family-friendly neighborhood with easy access to parks, shopping, and major highways. Plenty of room to bring your own creativity to this versatile property.

24. 2025-07-02
    historical
25. 2025-06-09
    price $279,995
26. 2025-05-08
    status Active
27. 2025-05-07
    historical
28. 2025-05-01
    listed $299,995 Active
29. 2024-07-26
    historical
30. 2024-05-16
    price $274,994
31. 2024-03-21
    price $274,995
32. 2024-03-14
    listed $275,000 Active
33. 2024-03-06
    historical
34. 2024-02-09
    price $275,000
35. 2023-12-17
    listed $250,000 Active
36. 2004-09-13
    soldstatus
37. 1988-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,031 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,031 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,175
• − Property taxes: −$4,031
• − Insurance: −$6,116
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,831
• − Management: −$1,831
• − Depreciation: −$5,804
• Taxable loss: −$7,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,896
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,349
• Household income: $77,083
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 537.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 25% White 23% Asian 16% Black 9% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Portuguese 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 39% Vietnamese 8% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.47%
• Current HPI: 241.5096
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.25%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $199,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $199,995 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $209,995 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $219,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $239,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $269,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $279,995 HARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $279,995 HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $279,995 HARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $299,995 HARMLS
• 2024-07-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-16 Price Changed $274,994 HARMLS
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $274,995 HARMLS
• 2024-03-14 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-09 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-17 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2004-09-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,031 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.