13050 Island Dr #12 · Clearlake Oaks, CA 95453

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Land · 39 Days on market

Built 2000 $76/sqft · 47% below area Est $123k · 47% under · waterfront

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your personal paradise on a quiet channel in Clearlake Oaks! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is nestled in the beautiful, well-kept Oasis MHP. The gated, all-ages park provides a private boat launch for all residents. Enjoy the peace and tranquility alongside the stunning lake and mountain views. As you step inside the recently remodeled home, you are greeted by updated bamboo flooring that flows seamlessly throughout the open and inviting living spaces. This lakeside getaway features a spacious deck that extends over the water's edge, perfect for sipping your morning coffee, enjoying evening gatherings with friends and family watching wildlife or fishing right off your

Key facts

• Central heating
• Spacious deck
• Built 2000

Tags

• LAKE AND MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• UPDATED BAMBOO FLOORING
• SPACIOUS DECK
• NEWLY RENOVATED INTERIOR
• CENTRAL HEATING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with breed restrictions
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Land lease of $500 monthly (land lease applies); Park name: Oasis

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking; Driveway parking; Deck (used for parking listed)
• Security: Automatic gate
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; Propane available; Electricity available and connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Telephone in street; Cable available
• Home design: Mobile home remains on site (mobile width 12', length 60'); Single-story; Orientation with front door entry
• Construction: Year built source: builder
• Exterior features: No pool; Lot has lake rights; Marina in community; Lot on channel/canal front; Fishing in community; Community offers watersports, hiking, rural and mountainous settings, BLM/National Forest access, lake recreation, and hunting

Interior

• Kitchen: Propane oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Single-story home (1 total story)
• Flooring: Bamboo flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: Front door entry; Automatic gate; Remodeled kitchen; Walk-in shower; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Has laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $747 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 4.3% in Clearlake Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#569 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Lake (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,555 of 1,571 statewide, top 99%, 244 students, 88% FRL); Highlands Academy (reading 24%, 12 students, 92% FRL); Lower Lake High (math 4% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,034 of 1,170 statewide, top 88%, 1,057 students, 79% FRL).
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $65k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.62%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,088
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -47.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $37,058
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $93,631
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95453

• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,526 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $296/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $747

Break-even live

Break-even rent $581

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $784	-5% $765	+0% $747	+5% $728	+10% $710
Rent	-10% $626	-5% $686	+0% $747	+5% $807	+10% $867
Rate	-1.0pp $779	-0.5pp $763	base $747	+0.5pp $730	+1.0pp $713

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $65,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $65,000 Active 972-char remark
19. 2026-04-22
    status Active
20. 2026-03-31
    historical
21. 2026-02-10
    status Active Under Contract
22. 2026-02-10
    price $65,000
23. 2026-02-01
    status Active
24. 2026-01-01
    status Active
25. 2025-11-20
    status Active
26. 2025-10-24
    status Active
27. 2025-10-04
    historical Active Under Contract
28. 2025-08-22
    price $58,000
29. 2025-07-24
    listed $62,000 Active
30. 2025-07-15
    historical
31. 2025-07-10
    status Active
32. 2025-06-07
    status Pending Sale
33. 2025-05-04
    status Active
34. 2025-04-18
    historical Active Under Contract
35. 2025-04-08
    price $65,000
36. 2025-03-05
    price $75,000
37. 2025-02-26
    listed $90,000 Active
38. 2022-04-07
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed Sale
39. 2022-02-21
    historical Active Under Contract
40. 2021-12-14
    price $30,000
41. 2021-12-03
    price $40,000
42. 2021-10-22
    price $46,000
43. 2021-10-04
    listed $50,000 Active
44. 2021-09-02
    listed Active Under Contract
45. 2021-07-09
    soldstatus $44,000 Closed Sale
46. 2021-06-30
    soldstatus $44,000 Closed Sale
47. 2021-06-10
    status Pending Sale
48. 2021-05-25
    listed $49,999 Active
49. 2017-11-13
    soldstatus $20,000 Closed Sale
50. 2017-08-20
    status Pending Sale

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $296 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $494 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$16/mo · 66.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$296
• − Insurance: −$1,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,465
• − Management: −$1,465
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $8,435
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,025
• After-tax cash flow: $6,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake Oaks

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #18675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake Oaks, CA
• County: Lake County · 24,333 people
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 11,741
• Household income: $71,419
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 250.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Native American 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.01%
• Current HPI: 155.5391
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+225.0% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-11-20 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-10-04 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $58,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listed $62,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-10 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-06-07 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-05-04 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-04-18 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $75,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $90,000 CRMLS
• 2022-04-07 Sold (MLS) $25,000 CRMLS
• 2022-02-21 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2021-12-14 Price Changed $30,000 CRMLS
• 2021-12-03 Price Changed $40,000 CRMLS
• 2021-10-22 Price Changed $46,000 CRMLS
• 2021-10-04 Listed $50,000 CRMLS
• 2021-09-02 Listed — CRMLS
• 2021-07-09 Sold (MLS) $44,000 CRMLS
• 2021-06-30 Sold (MLS) $44,000 CRMLS
• 2021-06-10 Pending — CRMLS
• 2021-05-25 Listed $49,999 CRMLS
• 2017-11-13 Sold (MLS) $20,000 CRMLS
• 2017-08-20 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-07-31 Listed $20,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $296 · -38.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.