11130 N Lake Mist Ln · Conroe, TX 77318

$235,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,377 sqft lot $128/sqft · 16% below area Est $280k · 16% under $69/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! Gated community with Lake Conroe Access. What a location! nuHome Colonial by Lennar! Amazing Santa Cruz plan Elevation B, two story with four bedrooms and 2.5 full bathrooms, two car garage. 50' x 120' average homesites for a nice yard! Features a welcoming entry foyer, a spacious family room and a casual dining room. The kitchen adjoins a convenient breakfast room. The primary bedroom features an en suite bathroom with a shower and tub, and a sizable walk-in master closet. A large loft area can be found on the second floor. nuHome features include a great appliance package with Dishwasher, Gas Range & More. Resilient Rigid Core Flooring throughout living and dining areas, Fully Sodded front, rear yards, Landscaping pkg and MORE!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Boat slips
• Fishing pier

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• FISHING PIER
• BOAT SLIPS
• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association fee amount listed annually
• HOA & community: Part of Goodwin association; Association amenities include pool and boat slip; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2021; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Fenced backyard; Subdivision setting; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Additional bedrooms on second floor (3 bedrooms); Total of 5 rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 424 students, 66% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 13724% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,241 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,706
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -15.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13088 Laura Lake Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,891 (+3%)	6mo	$285,000	$151	84
13051 Clearview Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,814 (-1%)	2mo	$285,000	$157	82
11417 Natalia Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,756 (-5%)	9mo	$220,000	$125	76
11107 Lulu Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-7%)	5mo	$275,000	$161	73
11008 Ondrea Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-6%)	11mo	$294,990	$172	73
11020 N Lake Mist Ln	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,702 (-8%)	1mo	$289,999	$170	70
11416 Natalia Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,691 (-8%)	16mo	$291,990	$173	64
10792 S Lake Mist Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (-14%)	4mo	$220,000	$139	62
10851 S Lake Mist Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,095 (+14%)	16mo	$265,000	$126	59
10473 Valley Dr N	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,981 (+8%)	3mo	$374,900	$189	50
10477 Valley Dr N	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,745 (-5%)	10mo	$342,500	$196	49
10712 S Lake Mist Ln	0.29mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,072 (+13%)	12mo	$599,000	$289	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-58,079
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-91,811
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$498 /mo · $5,977/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,402

Max offer price $196,241

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-153	+0% $-219	+5% $-286	+10% $-352
Rent	-10% $-387	-5% $-303	+0% $-219	+5% $-136	+10% $-52
Rate	-1.0pp $-101	-0.5pp $-160	base $-219	+0.5pp $-280	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11114 N Lake Mist Ln Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1313	$1,799	$1.37	14d	1	0.05mi
11962 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,925	$1.38	20d	1	1.09mi
11971 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,965	$1.36	7d	1	1.12mi
11962 Wisteria Meadows Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,785	$1.07	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $249,900 Active 860-char remark
16. 2026-03-11
    historical
17. 2026-01-12
    listed $250,000 Active
18. 2021-10-22
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    NEW! Gated community with Lake Conroe Access. What a location! nuHome Colonial by Lennar! Amazing Santa Cruz plan Elevation B, two story with four bedrooms and 2.5 full bathrooms, two car garage. 50' x 120' average homesites for a nice yard! Features a welcoming entry foyer, a spacious family room and a casual dining room. The kitchen adjoins a convenient breakfast room. The primary bedroom features an en suite bathroom with a shower and tub, and a sizable walk-in master closet. A large loft area can be found on the second floor. nuHome features include a great appliance package with Dishwasher, Gas Range & More. Resilient Rigid Core Flooring throughout living and dining areas, Fully Sodded front, rear yards, Landscaping pkg and MORE!

19. 2021-10-11
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    NEW! Gated community with Lake Conroe Access. What a location! nuHome Colonial by Lennar! Amazing Santa Cruz plan Elevation B, two story with four bedrooms and 2.5 full bathrooms, two car garage. 50' x 120' average homesites for a nice yard! Features a welcoming entry foyer, a spacious family room and a casual dining room. The kitchen adjoins a convenient breakfast room. The primary bedroom features an en suite bathroom with a shower and tub, and a sizable walk-in master closet. A large loft area can be found on the second floor. nuHome features include a great appliance package with Dishwasher, Gas Range & More. Resilient Rigid Core Flooring throughout living and dining areas, Fully Sodded front, rear yards, Landscaping pkg and MORE!

20. 2021-10-07
    listed $248,990 Active

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    NEW! Gated community with Lake Conroe Access. What a location! nuHome Colonial by Lennar! Amazing Santa Cruz plan Elevation B, two story with four bedrooms and 2.5 full bathrooms, two car garage. 50' x 120' average homesites for a nice yard! Features a welcoming entry foyer, a spacious family room and a casual dining room. The kitchen adjoins a convenient breakfast room. The primary bedroom features an en suite bathroom with a shower and tub, and a sizable walk-in master closet. A large loft area can be found on the second floor. nuHome features include a great appliance package with Dishwasher, Gas Range & More. Resilient Rigid Core Flooring throughout living and dining areas, Fully Sodded front, rear yards, Landscaping pkg and MORE!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,977 · $498/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,977 · $498/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$5,977
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$6,570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,577
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained two-story home in the Lake Breeze community is move-in ready with good condition and potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both update flooring — modernizes the home and improves rental appeal
• Both update kitchen appliances — keeps the kitchen up-to-date and enhances resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both update flooring — modernizes the home and improves rental appeal ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — keeps the kitchen up-to-date and enhances resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2021-10-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-10-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-07 Listed $248,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+92.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,977 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.