Is 11130 N Lake Mist Ln in Willis, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 4.4% cap rate and $-366/mo modeled cash flow at a $235,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 11130 N Lake Mist Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 4.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,939/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 39.28

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +6.8/30.0
Schools +4.1/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.3/10.0
Livability +3.1/5.0
Rent growth +2.0/5.0
DSCR +1.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$235,000

11130 N Lake Mist Ln · Willis, TX 77318

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,377 sqft lot Garage $128/sqft · 18% below area Est $286k · 18% under $69/mo HOA · 4% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! Gated community with Lake Conroe Access. What a location! nuHome Colonial by Lennar! Amazing Santa Cruz plan Elevation B, two story with four bedrooms and 2.5 full bathrooms, two car garage. 50' x 120' average homesites for a nice yard! Features a welcoming entry foyer, a spacious family room and a casual dining room. The kitchen adjoins a convenient breakfast room. The primary bedroom features an en suite bathroom with a shower and tub, and a sizable walk-in master closet. A large loft area can be found on the second floor. nuHome features include a great appliance package with Dishwasher, Gas Range & More. Resilient Rigid Core Flooring throughout living and dining areas, Fully Sodded front, rear yards, Landscaping pkg and MORE!

Key facts

Gated community
Boat slips
Fishing pier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (27.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (17.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $170k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Turner El (math 55% / reading 53%, grade C, #664 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 424 students, 66% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1387 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 13724% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,409 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.83% ✗
Cap rate: 4.43%
Cash-on-cash: -6.67%
DSCR: 0.70
GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $286,252
List price: $235,000
Delta: -17.90%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13002 Laura Lk	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,792 (-3%)	0mo	$339,990	$190	88
11029 Ondrea	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,878 (+2%)	2mo	$329,990	$176	86
13088 Laura Lake Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,891 (+3%)	8mo	$285,000	$151	82
13051 Clearview Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,814 (-1%)	3mo	$285,000	$157	81
11417 Natalia Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,756 (-5%)	10mo	$220,000	$125	75
11107 Lulu Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (-7%)	6mo	$275,000	$161	71
11008 Ondrea Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-6%)	13mo	$294,990	$172	71
11020 N Lake Mist Ln	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,702 (-8%)	3mo	$289,999	$170	68
10792 S Lake Mist Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (-14%)	5mo	$220,000	$139	60
10473 Valley Dr N	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,981 (+8%)	4mo	$374,900	$189	49
10477 Valley Dr N	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,745 (-5%)	11mo	$342,500	$196	48
10712 S Lake Mist Ln	0.29mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,072 (+13%)	14mo	$599,000	$289	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -31.8%
Equity multiple: -0.02×
Total profit: $-66,852
Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

IRR: -62.8%
Equity multiple: -0.66×
Total profit: $-109,358
Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 33 active · 6 under contract
Months of supply: 16.5 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $310,990 ($179/sqft)
Median days on market: 66 d
This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -13.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

Home prices YoY: -32.7%
Rents YoY: -2.1%
Active inventory: 1387
Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,939 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
Tax from tax record: −$498 /mo · $5,977/yr
Insurance: −$98
HOA: −$69
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,402

Max offer price $170,409

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-299	+0% $-366	+5% $-432	+10% $-499
Rent	-10% $-519	-5% $-442	+0% $-366	+5% $-289	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-247	-0.5pp $-306	base $-366	+0.5pp $-427	+1.0pp $-488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $58,750
Closing costs: $7,050
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11114 N Lake Mist Ln Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1313	$1,499	$1.14	23d	1	0.05mi
11962 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$1,650	$1.19	23d	1	1.09mi
11971 Sunshine Park Dr N Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,715	$1.19	23d	1	1.12mi
11962 Wisteria Meadows Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,785	$1.07	93d	1	1.46mi
11889 Whirlaway Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,725	$1.24	39d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Association fee amount listed annually
HOA & community: Part of Goodwin associationAssociation amenities include pool and boat slipAnnual association fee

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2021Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
Exterior features: DeckPatioPorchFenced backyardSubdivision settingAssociation pool

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorAdditional bedrooms on second floor (3 bedrooms)Total of 5 rooms
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features: Ceiling fans

HOA detail $69/mo · $828/yr

Likely covers: gaslandscapingsecurity

Listing history 28 events

2026-07-01

days on market $235,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $235,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $235,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $235,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $235,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $235,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $235,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $235,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $235,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $235,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $235,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $235,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $235,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $235,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $235,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $235,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $235,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $235,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $235,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $235,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-04-29

listed $249,900 Active 860-char remark
2026-03-11

historical
2026-01-12

listed $250,000 Active
2021-10-22

soldstatus Sold

Show marketing remark (748 chars)

NEW! Gated community with Lake Conroe Access. What a location! nuHome Colonial by Lennar! Amazing Santa Cruz plan Elevation B, two story with four bedrooms and 2.5 full bathrooms, two car garage. 50' x 120' average homesites for a nice yard! Features a welcoming entry foyer, a spacious family room and a casual dining room. The kitchen adjoins a convenient breakfast room. The primary bedroom features an en suite bathroom with a shower and tub, and a sizable walk-in master closet. A large loft area can be found on the second floor. nuHome features include a great appliance package with Dishwasher, Gas Range & More. Resilient Rigid Core Flooring throughout living and dining areas, Fully Sodded front, rear yards, Landscaping pkg and MORE!
2021-10-11

status Pending

Show marketing remark (748 chars)

NEW! Gated community with Lake Conroe Access. What a location! nuHome Colonial by Lennar! Amazing Santa Cruz plan Elevation B, two story with four bedrooms and 2.5 full bathrooms, two car garage. 50' x 120' average homesites for a nice yard! Features a welcoming entry foyer, a spacious family room and a casual dining room. The kitchen adjoins a convenient breakfast room. The primary bedroom features an en suite bathroom with a shower and tub, and a sizable walk-in master closet. A large loft area can be found on the second floor. nuHome features include a great appliance package with Dishwasher, Gas Range & More. Resilient Rigid Core Flooring throughout living and dining areas, Fully Sodded front, rear yards, Landscaping pkg and MORE!
2021-10-07

listed $248,990 Active

Show marketing remark (748 chars)

NEW! Gated community with Lake Conroe Access. What a location! nuHome Colonial by Lennar! Amazing Santa Cruz plan Elevation B, two story with four bedrooms and 2.5 full bathrooms, two car garage. 50' x 120' average homesites for a nice yard! Features a welcoming entry foyer, a spacious family room and a casual dining room. The kitchen adjoins a convenient breakfast room. The primary bedroom features an en suite bathroom with a shower and tub, and a sizable walk-in master closet. A large loft area can be found on the second floor. nuHome features include a great appliance package with Dishwasher, Gas Range & More. Resilient Rigid Core Flooring throughout living and dining areas, Fully Sodded front, rear yards, Landscaping pkg and MORE!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $5,977 · $498/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $5,977 · $498/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $23,267
− Mortgage interest: −$13,164
− Property taxes: −$5,977
− Insurance: −$1,175
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,861
− Management: −$1,861
− HOA: −$828
− Depreciation: −$6,836
Taxable loss: −$8,436

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,025
After-tax cash flow: $-2,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,200–$27,600 screening

This well-maintained two-story home in the Lake Breeze community is move-in ready with good condition and potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
Both update flooring — modernizes the home and improves rental appeal ↑
Both update kitchen appliances — keeps the kitchen up-to-date and enhances resale value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Turner El C TX #664/4,322 Nat'l #10,700/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Willis ISD
NCES district ID: 4845900
Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $57,828
Composite: 32.32/100
National rank: #5746
State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Willis

Score: 62/100
State rank: #933
US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 38,421
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 20,792
Household income: $92,415
Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
Current HPI: 236.256
Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

2026-05-20 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
2026-05-19 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
2026-04-29 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
2026-03-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-01-12 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
2021-10-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
2021-10-11 Pending — HARMLS
2021-10-07 Listed $248,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+92.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,977 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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