8A Edinburgh Ln Unit A · Manchester, NJ 08759

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 939 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 1972 Average condition 6,098 sqft lot Est $201k · at est. $391/mo HOA · 17% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2bd/1 bath, Cambridge model is ready for a quick close! Leisure Village West is an 825 acre gated active adult community w/ clubhouses, clubs, pools, lakes, pickleball, bocce, golf, endless activities! Start enjoying summer instead of spending it taking care of your yard.

Key facts

• Pickleball
• Clubhouses
• Lakes

Tags

• GATED ACTIVE ADULT COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSES
• POOLS
• LAKES
• PICKLEBALL
• BOCCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($33/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,946
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8A Edinburgh Ln Unit A	0.00mi	2/1.0	939 (0%)	1mo	$195,000	$208	99
440 Dartmoor Way Unit I	0.11mi	2/2.0	946 (+1%)	5mo	$185,000	$196	86
51D Edinburgh Ln	0.15mi	2/1.0	836 (-11%)	2mo	$229,900	$275	73
22 Edinburgh Ln Unit D	0.09mi	2/1.5	1,050 (+12%)	4mo	$255,000	$243	70
32B Edinburgh Ln	0.06mi	2/2.5	1,050 (+12%)	1mo	$172,500	$164	70
1D Sterling St	0.21mi	2/1.0	836 (-11%)	2mo	$170,000	$203	70
32D Sterling St	0.17mi	2/1.5	1,050 (+12%)	5mo	$225,000	$214	66
59B Cambridge Cir	0.40mi	2/1.0	861 (-8%)	3mo	$218,000	$253	65
32C Yorkshire Ct	0.29mi	2/1.5	1,050 (+12%)	1mo	$190,000	$181	64
61 Cambridge Cir Unit B	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,050 (+12%)	5mo	$249,000	$237	56
6D Gramercy Ln	0.52mi	2/1.5	1,050 (+12%)	2mo	$275,000	$262	53
22B Buckingham Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,065 (+13%)	5mo	$205,000	$192	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-31,798
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,351
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,239 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$391
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,236

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $72	+0% $3	+5% $-66	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-86	+0% $3	+5% $91	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $53	base $3	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	45d	1	0.15mi
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	45d	1	1.11mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	0d	3	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $391 · $4,692/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-22
   soldstatus $195,000 Closed
2. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-31
   price $199,000
4. 2026-03-23
   listed $209,000 Active
5. 2025-09-08
   historical
6. 2025-08-05
   price $210,000
7. 2025-08-05
   price $210,000
8. 2025-06-02
   listed $215,000 Active
9. 2025-06-02
   listed $215,000 Active
10. 2024-07-10
    soldstatus $225,000 Closed
11. 2024-06-06
    status Pending
12. 2024-05-15
    listed $239,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,150
• − Management: −$2,150
• − HOA: −$4,692
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$729
• After-tax cash flow: $762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home in Leisure Village West is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed. Painting and HVAC maintenance would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor air conditioning units — standard units, no visible damage
• Minor paint — neutral paint, no visible damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular maintenance ensures the HVAC system runs efficiently and reduces energy costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
air conditioning units · standard units, no visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
paint · neutral paint, no visible damage	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular maintenance ensures the HVAC system runs efficiently and reduces energy costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-18.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) $195,000 MOMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $199,000 MOMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $209,000 MOMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $210,000 MOMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $215,000 MOMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-10 Sold (MLS) $225,000 MOMLS
• 2024-06-06 Pending — MOMLS
• 2024-05-15 Listed $239,900 MOMLS