14053 Gillette Rd · Elba, NY 14411

$139,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1996 0.80 ac lot Est $241k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, 2 full bath double wide mobile home on. 80 acres with large rear deck. Large kitchen, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, family room and office.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Walk-through closet
• Quiet rural road

Tags

• QUIET RURAL ROAD
• CONVENIENTLY CLOSE TO ALBION
• 15 MINUTES FROM BATAVIA
• WALK-THROUGH CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• NEW FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#901 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Albion Central School District (town): math 37% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #479 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $140k implies a 536% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.48%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,488
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13901 Gillette Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (+4%)	21mo	$250,000	$172	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,936
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $18,842
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14411

• Home prices YoY: -11.6%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,747 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,396

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-01-21
   status Pending
2. 2025-01-21
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2024-12-07
   listed $139,900 Active
4. 2024-03-15
   soldstatus $22,000 Closed 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Three bedroom, 2 full bath double wide mobile home on. 80 acres with large rear deck. Large kitchen, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, family room and office.

5. 2024-01-31
   status Pending 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Three bedroom, 2 full bath double wide mobile home on. 80 acres with large rear deck. Large kitchen, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, family room and office.

6. 2024-01-22
   price $29,900 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Three bedroom, 2 full bath double wide mobile home on. 80 acres with large rear deck. Large kitchen, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, family room and office.

7. 2023-12-14
   price $44,900 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Three bedroom, 2 full bath double wide mobile home on. 80 acres with large rear deck. Large kitchen, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, family room and office.

8. 2023-10-31
   price $49,900 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Three bedroom, 2 full bath double wide mobile home on. 80 acres with large rear deck. Large kitchen, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, family room and office.

9. 2023-09-27
   price $79,900 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   Three bedroom, 2 full bath double wide mobile home on. 80 acres with large rear deck. Large kitchen, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, family room and office.

10. 2023-08-30
    listed $99,900 Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Three bedroom, 2 full bath double wide mobile home on. 80 acres with large rear deck. Large kitchen, formal dining room, living room with fireplace, family room and office.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,735 · $311/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,735 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,677
• − Management: −$1,677
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,266
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$304
• After-tax cash flow: $3,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albion Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602520
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,408
• Composite: 36.91/100
• National rank: #4541
• State rank: #479 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elba

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #17545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,479

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.68%
• Current HPI: 302.9236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+40.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-01-21 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2024-12-07 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-03-15 Sold (MLS) $22,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-01-31 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-01-22 Price Changed $29,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-12-14 Price Changed $44,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-10-31 Price Changed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-09-27 Price Changed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-08-30 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,735 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.