Dexter Plan · Austin, TX 78652

$386,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,187 sqft · SingleFamily · 568 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Dexter plan, a thoughtfully designed [stories]-story layout that adapts perfectly to you and your family's lifestyle. The Dexter plan is a part of M/I Homes Capital Series. It is meticulously crafted with much attention to detail as well as provides a seamlessly blending style and functionality. To learn more about building this exceptional home in one of our Austin communities, contact us today!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 567 days

🏗️ New construction. The $386,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $437,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $387k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 59d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 568 days — a 12% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,219 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 568 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.10%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,490
• List price: $386,990
• Delta: -11.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13214 Stabler Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,232 (+2%)	2mo	$419,990	$188	85
13207 Stabler Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	2,232 (+2%)	5mo	$416,990	$187	84
13213 Stabler Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,251 (+3%)	1mo	$415,990	$185	78
13208 Stabler Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,251 (+3%)	1mo	$416,990	$185	78
13202 Stabler Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,251 (+3%)	2mo	$429,990	$191	78
13106 Incline Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,441 (+12%)	0mo	$421,990	$173	70
13217 Stabler Dr	0.15mi	3/3.0	2,434 (+11%)	1mo	$434,990	$179	69
13211 Stabler Dr	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,441 (+12%)	0mo	$419,990	$172	66
13207 Keefer Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,441 (+12%)	1mo	$419,990	$172	64
13205 Stabler Dr	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,434 (+11%)	3mo	$429,990	$177	63
13212 Stabler Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,434 (+11%)	2mo	$439,990	$181	63
803 Cardenas Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	2,017 (-8%)	4mo	$395,000	$196	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-136,510
• Equity at exit: $65,231

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.66×
• Total profit: $-203,259
• Equity at exit: $37,826

Cash invested: $122,497 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 60 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $409,495 ($195/sqft)
• Median days on market: 48 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78652

• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,294
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$547 /mo · $6,562/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-1,031

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,827

Max offer price $288,322

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-729	-5% $-880	+0% $-1,031	+5% $-1,182	+10% $-1,333
Rent	-10% $-1,230	-5% $-1,130	+0% $-1,031	+5% $-931	+10% $-832
Rate	-1.0pp $-811	-0.5pp $-920	base $-1,031	+0.5pp $-1,144	+1.0pp $-1,260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,372
• Closing costs: $13,125
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
801 Steel Timber Dr Unit 312 Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,175	$1.55	40d	1	0.10mi
801 Steel Timber Dr Unit 834 Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,124	$1.52	72d	1	0.10mi
801 Steel Timber Dr Unit 711 Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,140	$1.53	80d	1	0.11mi
13004 Bloomington Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,595	$1.18	75d	1	0.13mi
13004 Bloomington Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,595	$1.18	56d	1	0.13mi
806 Dayton Dr Unit 110 Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,395	$1.28	64d	1	0.21mi
12901 Stanford Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2429	$2,649	$1.09	87d	1	0.21mi
12803 Stanford Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,450	$1.41	111d	1	0.28mi
12613 Stanford Dr Unit 86 Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.5	2038	$2,500	$1.23	1d	1	0.36mi
13207 Easley Dr Unit 1039127P Manchaca, TX	4.0	2.0	1797	$6,128	$3.41	0d	1	0.61mi
232 Tangled Brush Dr Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.5	2109	$2,750	$1.30	40d	1	0.65mi
12407 Altamira St Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2501	$2,895	$1.16	63d	1	0.69mi
827 Camino Vaquero Pkwy Manchaca, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	982	$2,293	$2.33	0d	39	0.71mi
701 Cardenas Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	2061	$2,895	$1.40	0d	1	0.73mi
826 Camino Vaquero Pkwy Manchaca, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,940	$1.38	10d	1	0.74mi
500 Cardenas Ln Austin, TX	4.0	3.5	2122	$2,700	$1.27	10d	1	0.77mi
615 Linares Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1833	$2,425	$1.32	10d	1	0.78mi
820 Camino Vaquero Pkwy Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$2,023	$1.96	0d	34	0.82mi
601 Puerta Vallarta Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,490	$1.35	139d	1	0.84mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,900	$1.22	120d	1	1.02mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,895	$1.22	100d	1	1.02mi
12215 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.0	2372	$2,895	$1.22	86d	1	1.02mi
12213 Coronilla Bnd Manchaca, TX	4.0	3.5	2739	$3,100	$1.13	58d	1	1.02mi
12000 S Interstate 35 Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1344	$2,153	$1.60	0d	57	1.07mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $386,990 Active 568 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $386,990 Active 567 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $386,990 Active 566 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $386,990 Active 564 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $386,990 Active 563 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $386,990 Active 562 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $386,990 Active 561 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $386,990 Active 560 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $386,990 Active 559 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $386,990 Active 558 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $386,990 Active 557 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $386,990 Active 556 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $386,990 Active 555 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $386,990 Active 549 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $386,990 Active 548 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $386,990 Active 547 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $386,990 Active 544 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $386,990 Active 542 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $386,990 Active 541 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $386,990 Active 540 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $386,990 Active 538 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $386,990 Active 537 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $386,990 Active 536 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $386,990 Active 535 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $386,990 Active 534 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $386,990 Active 533 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $386,990 Active 532 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    pricedays on market $386,990 Active 531 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $384,990 Active 530 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $384,990 Active 529 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $384,990 Active 528 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $384,990 Active 527 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $384,990 Active 526 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $384,990 Active 525 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $384,990 Active 524 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $384,990 Active 523 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $384,990 Active 522 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $384,990 Active 521 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $384,990 Active 519 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $384,990 Active 518 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $384,990 Active 517 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $384,990 Active 516 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $384,990 Active 513 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $384,990 Active 511 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $384,990 Active 510 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $384,990 Active 508 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $384,990 Active 506 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $384,990 Active 505 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $384,990 Active 504 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $384,990 Active 503 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,506
• − Property taxes: −$6,562
• − Insurance: −$2,187
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,421
• − Management: −$2,421
• − Depreciation: −$12,727
• Taxable loss: −$20,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,934
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,436/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from landscaping and smart home integration to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,627
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5397
• State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,287
• Household income: $133,368
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 26% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.32%
• Current HPI: 233.9814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $382,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $380,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $379,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $378,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $377,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $376,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $466,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $376,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $466,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Listed $496,990 Zillow