Ritz Craft 10NIC Oak Tree Plan · Vista Center, NJ 08527

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 951 sqft · Manufactured · 98 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The future is YOURS at Oak Tree, a 55+ Community in Jackson, NJ. Our community features a varierty of new manufactured homes, amenities, and affordable monthly payments. Enjoy a serene lifestyle with easy access to shopping, restaurants, entertainment. From our Saltwater Pool to our multi-use Clubhouse, Oak Tree offers endless opportunities for relaxation and recreation. Our neighbors can enjoy inclusive resident events, PLUS an ease of mind with our 24/7 emergency maintenance. Now Open for Tours!

Key facts

• Saltwater pool
• Multi-use clubhouse
• Listed 98 days

Tags

• SALTWATER POOL
• MULTI-USE CLUBHOUSE
• 24/7 EMERGENCY MAINTENANCE
• INCLUSIVE RESIDENT EVENTS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $191k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.3% in Vista Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#507 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 564 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $191,100 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.09%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-912
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $21,957
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 564
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,649 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,837

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-03-12
    listed $210,000 Active 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    The future is YOURS at Oak Tree, a 55+ Community in Jackson, NJ. Our community features a varierty of new manufactured homes, amenities, and affordable monthly payments. Enjoy a serene lifestyle with easy access to shopping, restaurants, entertainment. From our Saltwater Pool to our multi-use Clubhouse, Oak Tree offers endless opportunities for relaxation and recreation. Our neighbors can enjoy inclusive resident events, PLUS an ease of mind with our 24/7 emergency maintenance. Now Open for Tours!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,543
• − Management: −$2,543
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $4,627
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $6,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home requires minor repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and appeal. Upgrading the interior and exterior can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Light wear and tear, but not structural damage.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Visible signs of wear, but still functional.
• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration, but no structural issues.
• Minor Flooring — Worn carpet, but still serviceable.
• Minor Interior walls — Some scuffing, but paint is still intact.
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and curb appeal.
• Both Landscaping maintenance — A well-maintained exterior can significantly boost both resale and rental value.
• Both New flooring — Replacing worn carpet with a more durable and attractive option can enhance both resale and rental appeal.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating worn-out cabinets and fixtures can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters.
• Both Exterior siding repair — Repairing discoloration and minor damage can improve the home's curb appeal and overall condition.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Light wear and tear, but not structural damage.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Visible signs of wear, but still functional.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Some discoloration, but no structural issues.	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Worn carpet, but still serviceable.	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior walls · Some scuffing, but paint is still intact.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$17,500–65,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and curb appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping maintenance — A well-maintained exterior can significantly boost both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring — Replacing worn carpet with a more durable and attractive option can enhance both resale and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating worn-out cabinets and fixtures can make the home more appealing to potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Exterior siding repair — Repairing discoloration and minor damage can improve the home's curb appeal and overall condition. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vista Center

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #21522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $210,000 Zillow