13990 S Old State Rd · Ellendale, DE 19941

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1986 0.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Alert! 3-bed, 2-bath Class C home on 0.7 acre +/- with public water and public sewer hook ups! 10 minutes to Georgetown, 15 minutes to Milford, with a renovation this property has potential to be a great rental or you can flip and sell. Connected to water and sewer, utilities are off. Being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 1.7% in Ellendale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#33 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Milford School District (town): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #22 of 26 in DE (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.80%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $78,617
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.65×
• Total profit: $212,034
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19941

• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $708/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $784

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $444	-5% $416	+0% $388	+5% $360	+10% $332
Rent	-10% $287	-5% $338	+0% $388	+5% $438	+10% $489
Rate	-1.0pp $438	-0.5pp $413	base $388	+0.5pp $362	+1.0pp $336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2023-02-28
   status Pending
2. 2023-02-24
   listed $99,000 Active
3. 2023-02-22
   historical $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DE · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,304
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$708
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $3,227
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$775
• After-tax cash flow: $3,883/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milford School District
• NCES district ID: 1001080
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $51,794
• Composite: 22.18/100
• National rank: #8162
• State rank: #22 of 26 in DE

Livability — Ellendale

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #9465

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,120

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 97.39%
• Current HPI: 335.3439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2023-02-28 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-24 Listed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-22 Coming Soon $99,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $708 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.