5664 40th Ter N #428 · Kenneth City, FL 33710

$72,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 652 sqft · Condo public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1961 $488/mo HOA · 34% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE DROP!!! Sun-filled and full of easy, low-maintenance charm, this one-bedroom, one-bath condo is the kind of home that makes everyday living feel effortless. From the moment you step inside, you’ll appreciate the smart one-floor layout, central air, and a bright, comfortable living space that flows beautifully for relaxing, entertaining, or simply enjoying a quiet night in. The mix of carpet and laminate flooring adds warmth and practicality, while ceiling fans help keep the atmosphere light and comfortable year-round. The kitchen is equipped with the essentials already in place, including a range, refrigerator, and microwave, making it move-in ready from day one. The primary bed

Key facts

• One floor layout
• Built in closet
• Shingle roof

Tags

• ONE FLOOR LAYOUT
• CENTRAL AIR
• BUILT IN CLOSET
• COVERED SCREENED PORCH
• BLOCK CONSTRUCTION
• SHINGLE ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info: Total annual association fees $5,856; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $488; HOA management: Property Bayway Management (full time); HOA includes insurance, internet, maintenance (structure), management, pest control, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water; Clubhouse; Association approval required; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Community mailbox and sidewalks; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Water available
• Home design: Residential condominium; Single-story; Faces north; Condo on floor 1; Condo land included
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Screened patio/porch; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $72k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $72k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.7% in Kenneth City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#47 in FL, #874 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westgate Elementary School (math 59% / reading 50%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 541 students, 70% FRL); St. Petersburg High School (math 31% / reading 61%, grade D-, #220 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,723 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $72k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,680 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.47%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-5,478
• Equity at exit: $10,735

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-6,888
• Equity at exit: $6,225

Cash invested: $20,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33710

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,455 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,139/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$488
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,254

Max offer price $72,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $179	+0% $159	+5% $139	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $44	-5% $102	+0% $159	+5% $217	+10% $274
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $177	base $159	+0.5pp $140	+1.0pp $121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,000
• Closing costs: $2,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5680 28th Ave N Unit 1 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	450	$1,500	$3.33	25d	1	0.81mi
5323 59th Cir W Kenneth City, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	4d	4	0.83mi
3980 64th St N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	707	$1,350	$1.91	4d	6	0.87mi
5255 62nd St N Kenneth City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	4d	2	0.92mi
6538 42nd Ave N Unit 7 Kenneth City, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$2,000	$3.09	25d	1	1.02mi
3556 66th St N St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	610	$1,300	$2.13	16d	1	1.15mi
5701 21st Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	775	$1,449	$1.87	9d	3	1.21mi
6522 54th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,300	$1.46	3d	10	1.22mi
4701 68th St N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,099	$1.57	25d	1	1.37mi
6801 48th Ave N Unit B St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,525	$2.35	25d	1	1.42mi
4719 21st Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,800	$2.68	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $488 · $5,856/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,000 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,000 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,000 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,000 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,000 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $72,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $72,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $72,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-05-18
    price $72,000
14. 2026-03-28
    listed $75,499 Active
15. 2004-04-02
    soldstatus $27,500
16. 1987-03-26
    soldstatus $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,139 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,139 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,033
• − Property taxes: −$1,139
• − Insurance: −$360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,397
• − Management: −$1,397
• − HOA: −$5,856
• − Depreciation: −$2,095
• Taxable income: $1,185
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$284
• After-tax cash flow: $1,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kenneth City

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #874

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kenneth City, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,796
• Household income: $78,611
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 542.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -547.31%
• Current HPI: 405.0731
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+227.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $72,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Listed $75,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 1987-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,139 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.