250 Kinney Hill Rd · Newark, VT 05871

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 366 Days on market

Built 1983 10 ac lot $119/sqft · 47% below area Est $246k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remote Vacation or home property. Off-grid. 2 to 3 bedrooms. 3/4 bath. Nice front deck. Propane heater, wood stove. Generator, wired for solar lights. Woodshed, Bunkroom, Storage shed. Firepit.

Key facts

• Front deck
• Propane heater
• Wood stove

Tags

• FRONT DECK
• PROPANE HEATER
• WOOD STOVE
• GENERATOR
• WIRED FOR SOLAR LIGHTS
• WOODSHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $130k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.27%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,841
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -47.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $50,315
• Equity at exit: $80,368

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.77×
• Total profit: $137,371
• Equity at exit: $144,589

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05871

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,744/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,115

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 366 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 365 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 364 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 362 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 361 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $130,000 Active 360 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 357 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 356 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 355 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 354 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 351 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 350 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 349 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 348 DOM
16. 2025-06-17
    listed $145,000 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Remote Vacation or home property. Off-grid. 2 to 3 bedrooms. 3/4 bath. Nice front deck. Propane heater, wood stove. Generator, wired for solar lights. Woodshed, Bunkroom, Storage shed. Firepit.

17. 2003-07-31
    soldstatus $60,000 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    NICELY MAINTAINED YEAR ROUND VACATION OR HUNTING LODGE ON 10 REMOTE ACRES. . WOODSTOVE, NEW WINDOWS, KILLER VIEWS.

18. 2002-10-10
    listed $67,000 114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (114 chars)

    NICELY MAINTAINED YEAR ROUND VACATION OR HUNTING LODGE ON 10 REMOTE ACRES. . WOODSTOVE, NEW WINDOWS, KILLER VIEWS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,744 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,107 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$363/yr (+$30/mo · 20.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥87°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,744
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$144
• After-tax cash flow: $2,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Newark

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,369

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 6% German 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.84%
• Current HPI: 286.7647
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+116.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-17 Listed $145,000 PrimeMLS
• 2003-07-31 Sold (MLS) $60,000 PrimeMLS
• 2002-10-10 Listed $67,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,744 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.