705 Frost Dr · Bay City, MI 48706

$169,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1953 0.30 ac lot Est $119k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Darling township ranch features gleaming hardwood floors, fresh paint and decor, remodeled bathroom, updated furnace, 3 season porch, vinyl windows, and that is just the inside! Outside you will find an outsize fenced and landscaped yard, shed, and relaxing patio for warm summer nights. Call now!

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1953

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential single-story; Built in 1953; Basement foundation
• Construction: Aluminum and stone exterior
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Patio; Shed (outbuilding); Road frontage; Walkable to school; Within city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (about 14 x 10); Vinyl kitchen flooring; Range/oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level, about 13 x 10, carpeted; Second bedroom on main level, about 11 x 10, carpeted; Third bedroom on main level, about 9' wide, carpeted
• Flooring: Wood floors in living and dining areas; Vinyl in kitchen; Carpet in bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One lavatory in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Hardwood floors; Sump pump; Sun/Florida room (16 x 12)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (0.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bangor Township Schools (suburban): math 26% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #271 of 540 in MI (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $169k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $167,500 (0.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.62%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
705 Frost Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5	960 (0%)	0mo	$175,000	$182	98
1005 N Wenona Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+4%)	6mo	$107,200	$107	70
607 N Warner St	0.38mi	3/1.5	925 (-4%)	9mo	$93,000	$101	67
905 N Dewitt St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,018 (+6%)	3mo	$130,000	$128	64
1004 N Williams St	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,020 (+6%)	4mo	$126,000	$124	61
506 N Catherine St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	966 (+1%)	6mo	$109,900	$114	58
809 N LINN St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,029 (+7%)	2mo	$92,500	$90	56
201 N Warner St	0.67mi	3/1.0	902 (-6%)	4mo	$95,000	$105	56
1115 Litchfield St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,012 (+5%)	3mo	$122,000	$121	56
4543 Westfield Ct	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+15%)	7mo	$145,000	$132	46
318 Gary St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,092 (+14%)	5mo	$172,000	$158	42
604 N Catherine St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	860 (-10%)	8mo	$113,000	$131	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-10,795
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $11,853
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,266/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,344

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $357	-5% $309	+0% $261	+5% $213	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $129	-5% $195	+0% $261	+5% $327	+10% $393
Rate	-1.0pp $346	-0.5pp $304	base $261	+0.5pp $217	+1.0pp $173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-13
   listed $169,000 Active
3. 2026-05-12
   historical $169,000
4. 2020-07-01
   soldstatus $112,000
5. 2020-06-30
   soldstatus $112,000 297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (297 chars)

   Darling township ranch features gleaming hardwood floors, fresh paint and decor, remodeled bathroom, updated furnace, 3 season porch, vinyl windows, and that is just the inside! Outside you will find an outsize fenced and landscaped yard, shed, and relaxing patio for warm summer nights. Call now!

6. 2020-06-09
   listed $107,500 297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (297 chars)

   Darling township ranch features gleaming hardwood floors, fresh paint and decor, remodeled bathroom, updated furnace, 3 season porch, vinyl windows, and that is just the inside! Outside you will find an outsize fenced and landscaped yard, shed, and relaxing patio for warm summer nights. Call now!

7. 2010-12-28
   soldstatus $80,900
8. 2010-12-27
   soldstatus $80,900
9. 2010-09-20
   listed $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,266 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,934 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$669/yr (+$56/mo · 52.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,266
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $390
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$94
• After-tax cash flow: $3,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bangor Township Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603900
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,665
• Composite: 30.59/100
• National rank: #6200
• State rank: #271 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+99.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $169,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon $169,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-30 Sold (MLS) $112,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-06-09 Listed $107,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $80,900 Public Records
• 2010-12-27 Sold (MLS) $80,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-09-20 Listed $84,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,266 · -43.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.