19206 Newman Gardens Rd · Houston, TX 77532

$241,940

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $232k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unwind after a long day in the Glacier's relaxing primary suite, complete with a spa-like primary bathroom. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and grey mosiac backsplash, grey tone EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2025
• Listed 23 days

Tags

• SPA-LIKE PRIMARY BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 19206 Newman Gardens Rd, Crosby TX 77532
• Financial info: List price $261,940

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family spec home (The Glacier, N304 plan); Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1414

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (The Glacier plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-706/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,198 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,896
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2519 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-1%)	2mo	$235,540	$168	95
2534 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,414 (0%)	3mo	$215,540	$152	95
2619 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,414 (0%)	3mo	$215,540	$152	94
2522 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+2%)	1mo	$239,940	$166	94
2603 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,414 (0%)	1mo	$232,540	$164	94
2543 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,405 (-1%)	3mo	$237,540	$169	93
2535 Paloverde Canyon Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+2%)	0mo	$243,940	$168	92
2530 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+2%)	3mo	$232,940	$161	91
2550 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+2%)	3mo	$211,790	$147	90
2602 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,449 (+2%)	2mo	$239,940	$166	90
2515 Cactus Ranch Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,557 (+10%)	3mo	$249,040	$160	74
18815 Deer Trace Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+11%)	3mo	$257,900	$164	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-45,997
• Equity at exit: $36,074

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-56,997
• Equity at exit: $20,919

Cash invested: $67,743 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$302 /mo · $3,629/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,116

Max offer price $233,427

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,485
• Closing costs: $7,258
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20034 White Dove Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,850	$1.45	12d	1	0.90mi
20119 Iron Winds St Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,875	$1.32	12d	1	1.09mi
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	24d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $241,940 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $241,940 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $263,940 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $263,940 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $263,940 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $263,940 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $263,940 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $263,940 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $263,940 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $263,940 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $261,940 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $261,940 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $261,940 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,552
• − Property taxes: −$3,629
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − Depreciation: −$7,038
• Taxable loss: −$4,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,163
• After-tax cash flow: $457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B