314 East St · Gordonsville, VA 22942

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1900 0.50 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A true fixer-upper or tear-down opportunity this two lot property is nestled in a private setting with mature trees and lush greenery in Gordonsville, VA. The existing two-bedroom, one-bathroom home requires a complete overhaul or possible demolition. With weathered siding, peeling paint, an aged roof, and an interior in need of full restoration, this property is a blank slate for a full rebuild or extensive renovation. The layout includes a front porch and a spacious yard, providing ample room for expansion, gardening, or new construction. With two lots, the potential is even greater—whether you're an investor seeking a redevelopment project, a handyman looking for your next challen

Key facts

• Private lot
• Front porch
• Quiet retreat

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• MATURE TREES
• LUSH GREENERY
• FULL RENOVATION
• QUIET RETREAT
• FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 2.7% in Gordonsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#249 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Orange County High (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,476 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.57%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Depot St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,204 (+0%)	2mo	$288,000	$239	80
301 Charles St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,269 (+6%)	11mo	$290,000	$229	62
102 Jackson St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,212 (+1%)	10mo	$298,700	$246	60
513 Gentry Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,270 (+6%)	5mo	$299,000	$235	57
306 Paynor Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,064 (-11%)	6mo	$305,000	$287	49
311 Stonewall Ave	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,028 (-14%)	13mo	$295,000	$287	43
11490 Browntown Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-10%)	1mo	$305,673	$283	39
122 Jackson St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,297 (+8%)	16mo	$357,750	$276	38
11418 Cox Ml	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,363 (+14%)	11mo	$180,000	$132	36
134 Jackson St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,301 (+8%)	12mo	$333,000	$256	36
311 Partlow Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,022 (-15%)	17mo	$240,000	$235	35
640 Coniston Manor Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,360 (+13%)	11mo	$355,000	$261	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $24,958
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $72,610
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22942

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,498 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $633/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $712

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-02
   historical
3. 2025-05-02
   historical
4. 2025-04-02
   price $90,000
5. 2025-03-20
   status Active
6. 2025-03-20
   status Active
7. 2025-03-17
   status Pending
8. 2025-03-17
   status Pending
9. 2025-03-10
   listed $100,000 Active
10. 2025-03-01
    listed $100,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $633 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $738 · $62/mo
• Expected delta: +$105/yr (+$9/mo · 16.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$633
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,438
• − Management: −$1,438
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $6,356
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,525
• After-tax cash flow: $5,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $61,086
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #2147
• State rank: #71 of 131 in VA

Livability — Gordonsville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #249
• US rank: #8327

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gordonsville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 10,115

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,758 people
• By 2030: 40,411 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 43,477 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 45,856 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 51,067 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 51,387 · +32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.2% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+14.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.72%
• Current HPI: 183.3855
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-05 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-20 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-03-17 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-03-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-10 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-01 Listed $100,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $633 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.