307 Blue Jay Dr · Windsor, PA 17356

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 732 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1972 $55/sqft · 21% below area Est $50k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the 55+ Crestview Acres community in Red Lion, this well-maintained home welcomes you with a convenient ramp entry and a warm sense of care. Over the years the seller has updated major systems including the furnace, A/C, water heater, and replacement windows so you can move in with confidence. Inside, a bright eat-in kitchen opens to an extra flexible room perfect for a cozy guest bedroom, home office, dining nook, or extra storage. A comfortable living room leads down the hall to two bedrooms and a full bath with convenient washer/dryer hookups. Outside, off-street parking for two and a storage shed complete the home. This is an opportunity to claim a charming and well-cared-for home. Call today for a private tour.

Key facts

• Built 1972
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $695 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 27.2% vs local median 1.9% in Windsor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#748 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Red Lion Area SD (suburban): math 36% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #282 of 539 in PA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.67%
• DSCR: 4.32
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,450
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -20.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
324 Blue Jay Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0	798 (+9%)	3mo	$47,900	$60	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $37,829
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.06×
• Total profit: $90,028
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17356

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $695

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
92 E High St Yoe, PA	1.0	1.0	500	$855	$1.71	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   Nestled in the 55+ Crestview Acres community in Red Lion, this well-maintained home welcomes you with a convenient ramp entry and a warm sense of care. Over the years the seller has updated major systems including the furnace, A/C, water heater, and replacement windows so you can move in with confidence. Inside, a bright eat-in kitchen opens to an extra flexible room perfect for a cozy guest bedroom, home office, dining nook, or extra storage. A comfortable living room leads down the hall to two bedrooms and a full bath with convenient washer/dryer hookups. Outside, off-street parking for two and a storage shed complete the home. This is an opportunity to claim a charming and well-cared-for home. Call today for a private tour.

2. 2026-05-18
   listed $39,900 Active 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   Nestled in the 55+ Crestview Acres community in Red Lion, this well-maintained home welcomes you with a convenient ramp entry and a warm sense of care. Over the years the seller has updated major systems including the furnace, A/C, water heater, and replacement windows so you can move in with confidence. Inside, a bright eat-in kitchen opens to an extra flexible room perfect for a cozy guest bedroom, home office, dining nook, or extra storage. A comfortable living room leads down the hall to two bedrooms and a full bath with convenient washer/dryer hookups. Outside, off-street parking for two and a storage shed complete the home. This is an opportunity to claim a charming and well-cared-for home. Call today for a private tour.

3. 2026-04-16
   historical $39,900 736-char remark

   Show marketing remark (736 chars)

   Nestled in the 55+ Crestview Acres community in Red Lion, this well-maintained home welcomes you with a convenient ramp entry and a warm sense of care. Over the years the seller has updated major systems including the furnace, A/C, water heater, and replacement windows so you can move in with confidence. Inside, a bright eat-in kitchen opens to an extra flexible room perfect for a cozy guest bedroom, home office, dining nook, or extra storage. A comfortable living room leads down the hall to two bedrooms and a full bath with convenient washer/dryer hookups. Outside, off-street parking for two and a storage shed complete the home. This is an opportunity to claim a charming and well-cared-for home. Call today for a private tour.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $8,195
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,967
• After-tax cash flow: $6,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Lion Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4220100
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,225
• Composite: 37.91/100
• National rank: #4313
• State rank: #282 of 539 in PA

Livability — Windsor

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #748
• US rank: #7475

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: York County · 278,806 people
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,869
• Household income: $86,561
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.16%
• Current HPI: 259.7294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $39,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon $39,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $34 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.