Griffin Plan · Prairieville, LA 70734

$363,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily · 284 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

None

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 284 days

🏗️ New construction. The $363,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $418,471.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $363k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-372 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.3% in Prairieville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#70 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $318,975 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $418,471
• List price: $363,000
• Delta: -13.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36259 Belle Parc Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,834 (-4%)	1mo	$374,900	$204	89
13237 Belle Reine Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	2,019 (+5%)	1mo	$404,691	$200	88
36310 Belle Reserve Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	2,039 (+6%)	0mo	$350,000	$172	79
13308 Belle Prairie Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,113 (+10%)	2mo	$443,000	$210	62
36182 Belle Parc Ave	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,139 (+12%)	5mo	$417,304	$195	61
36114 Belle Parc Ave	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,139 (+12%)	3mo	$394,383	$184	58
36114 Belle Parc Ave	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,139 (+12%)	3mo	$394,983	$185	58
13147 Oakbourne Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,825 (-5%)	3mo	$435,000	$238	56
13102 Oak Knoll Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,868 (-2%)	7mo	$350,000	$187	54
13163 Dutchtown Lakes Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,704 (-11%)	7mo	$325,000	$191	52
37055 John St	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,716 (-10%)	7mo	$285,000	$166	43
13127 Oakbourne Ave	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,146 (+12%)	4mo	$469,900	$219	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-91,459
• Equity at exit: $62,395

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-109,958
• Equity at exit: $36,182

Cash invested: $117,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70734

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,195
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$523 /mo · $6,277/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,661

Max offer price $364,634

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-227	+0% $-372	+5% $-517	+10% $-661
Rent	-10% $-624	-5% $-498	+0% $-372	+5% $-246	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-161	-0.5pp $-266	base $-372	+0.5pp $-480	+1.0pp $-591

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,618
• Closing costs: $12,554
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37313 Mindy Way Ave Prairieville, LA	4.0	3.0	2517	$4,050	$1.61	44d	1	1.24mi
37393 Preserve Trl Gonzales, LA	3.0	2.5	1956	$2,500	$1.28	14d	2	1.28mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $363,000 Active 284 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $363,000 Active 283 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $363,000 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $363,000 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $363,000 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $363,000 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $363,000 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $363,000 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $363,000 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $363,000 Active 270 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $363,000 Active 269 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $363,000 Active 268 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $363,000 Active 267 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $363,000 Active 266 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $363,000 Active 265 DOM
16. 2025-09-16
    price $363,000 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

17. 2025-09-07
    listed $375,000 Active 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,441
• − Property taxes: −$6,277
• − Insurance: −$2,092
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,062
• − Management: −$3,062
• − Depreciation: −$12,174
• Taxable loss: −$11,831
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,840
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Prairieville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #8507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 49,278
• Population (ZIP): 9,880

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.70%
• Current HPI: 148.0987
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $363,000 Zillow
• 2025-09-07 Listed $375,000 Zillow