6193 Offerman Loop · Offerman, GA 31557

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1951 0.52 ac lot $121/sqft · 12% below area Est $181k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home with covered carport . The exterior features light-colored siding paired with a durable metal roof, providing both low maintenance and long-term reliability. A welcoming front porch with steps leads to a bold red front door, adding warm pop of character. This home includes a covered carport, offering convenient parking and protection from the elements, along with additional outdoor storage potential. The spacious front yard is open and level, framed by mature trees that provide shade and a peaceful setting. A chain-link fence adds definition and functionality to the property. This property also features a updated well and septic system.

Key facts

• Outdoor storage
• Spacious front yard
• Metal roof

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• METAL ROOF
• FRONT PORCH
• OUTDOOR STORAGE
• SPACIOUS FRONT YARD
• MATURE TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-34 ($-404/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#555 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Pierce County (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #15 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 88 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $160k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,526 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,802
• List price: $159,900
• Delta: -11.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6159 Carter Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	8mo	$235,000	$188	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $84,882
• Equity at exit: $144,051

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $251,530
• Equity at exit: $310,651

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31557

• Home prices YoY: 12.8%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $873/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $-34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,238

Max offer price $153,954

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $57	-5% $12	+0% $-34	+5% $-79	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-81	+0% $-34	+5% $14	+10% $61
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $7	base $-34	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-01
   price $159,900 677-char remark

   Show marketing remark (677 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home with covered carport . The exterior features light-colored siding paired with a durable metal roof, providing both low maintenance and long-term reliability. A welcoming front porch with steps leads to a bold red front door, adding warm pop of character. This home includes a covered carport, offering convenient parking and protection from the elements, along with additional outdoor storage potential. The spacious front yard is open and level, framed by mature trees that provide shade and a peaceful setting. A chain-link fence adds definition and functionality to the property. This property also features a updated well and septic system.

2. 2026-03-10
   price $165,000 677-char remark

   Show marketing remark (677 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home with covered carport . The exterior features light-colored siding paired with a durable metal roof, providing both low maintenance and long-term reliability. A welcoming front porch with steps leads to a bold red front door, adding warm pop of character. This home includes a covered carport, offering convenient parking and protection from the elements, along with additional outdoor storage potential. The spacious front yard is open and level, framed by mature trees that provide shade and a peaceful setting. A chain-link fence adds definition and functionality to the property. This property also features a updated well and septic system.

3. 2026-01-23
   price $185,000 677-char remark

   Show marketing remark (677 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home with covered carport . The exterior features light-colored siding paired with a durable metal roof, providing both low maintenance and long-term reliability. A welcoming front porch with steps leads to a bold red front door, adding warm pop of character. This home includes a covered carport, offering convenient parking and protection from the elements, along with additional outdoor storage potential. The spacious front yard is open and level, framed by mature trees that provide shade and a peaceful setting. A chain-link fence adds definition and functionality to the property. This property also features a updated well and septic system.

4. 2025-12-19
   listed $199,000 Active 677-char remark

   Show marketing remark (677 chars)

   Charming 3 bedroom 1.5 bath home with covered carport . The exterior features light-colored siding paired with a durable metal roof, providing both low maintenance and long-term reliability. A welcoming front porch with steps leads to a bold red front door, adding warm pop of character. This home includes a covered carport, offering convenient parking and protection from the elements, along with additional outdoor storage potential. The spacious front yard is open and level, framed by mature trees that provide shade and a peaceful setting. A chain-link fence adds definition and functionality to the property. This property also features a updated well and septic system.

5. 2024-03-28
   historical $1,150
6. 2024-03-14
   listed $1,150
7. 2022-07-15
   historical
8. 2022-01-15
   listed $119,900
9. 2020-10-20
   soldstatus $79,000
10. 2009-03-17
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,471 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$598/yr (+$50/mo · 68.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$873
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,147
• − Management: −$1,147
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$776
• After-tax cash flow: $372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pierce County
• NCES district ID: 1304140
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,523
• Composite: 43.04/100
• National rank: #3097
• State rank: #15 of 174 in GA

Livability — Offerman

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #24480

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Offerman, GA
• City population: 23
• Population (ZIP): 3,717

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,690 people
• By 2030: 19,886 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 20,140 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 20,113 · +2.1%
• By 2075: 19,166 · -2.7%
• By 2100: 16,296 · -17.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Hungarian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.5) · D 11.2% · R 88.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -62.5pp · 2024: -77.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.5 2020: R+75.1 2016: R+74.0 2012: R+66.4 2008: R+62.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.95%
• Current HPI: 289.3963
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+255.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $159,900 GIAR
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $165,000 GIAR
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $185,000 GIAR
• 2025-12-19 Listed $199,000 GIAR
• 2024-03-28 Rental Removed $1,150 SEGAMLS
• 2024-03-14 Listed for Rent $1,150 SEGAMLS
• 2022-07-15 Listing Removed — GIAR
• 2022-01-15 Listed $119,900 GIAR
• 2020-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2009-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $873 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.