18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #203 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$279,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1983 Est $205k · 36% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One of the nicest homes in one of the prettiest 55+ Gated Communities in San Diego County. This 2br/2ba manufactured home in Skyline Ranch Country Club boasts almost 1,800 sq. ft. of living space and a huge two-car garage. Owners have spent over $126,000 in improvements including a completely remodeled Kitchen w/ thoughtful storage, high-end cabinetry, granite counters, stainless steel sink & appliances & a large walk-in pantry. .. See Supplement for addition information. Both bathrooms were remodeled featuring "adult-height" custom vanities, low-flow commodes, updated lighting. The Primary bedroom is a good size and offers a huge (11' x 7') walk-in closet w/ built-in

Key facts

• Custom vanities
• Remodeled kitchen
• Laundry utility room

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• CUSTOM VANITIES
• LAUNDRY UTILITY ROOM
• BBQ STATION
• PRIVATE SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Gated association; Community amenities include golf, pool, clubhouse and fitness center; Senior community (Skyline Ranch CC)

Exterior

• Parking: Total 7 parking spaces; 2-car detached garage with garage door opener; Driveway and carport parking available; street parking permitted
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Lap siding and vertical siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Patio; Awning(s); Partial fencing; Shed(s); Gazebo; Community pool; Community spa / hot tub; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Range / Oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 bedrooms possible
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Range / Oven; Electric cooktop; Gas water heater; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $927 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $279k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.25%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #203	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,784 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$154	100
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 89	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,770 (-1%)	2mo	$215,000	$121	97
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 18 Spc 18	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,792 (+0%)	11mo	$285,000	$159	90
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #144	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	12mo	$170,000	$101	80
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #20	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,832 (+3%)	21mo	$110,000	$60	78
18218 Paradise Mtn Rd #59	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	3mo	$249,900	$149	71
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 200 Spc 200	0.00mi	2/2.0	2,038 (+14%)	11mo	$105,000	$52	67
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 150	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-14%)	8mo	$267,500	$174	64
18218 Paradise Mtn Spc 47	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-13%)	12mo	$100,000	$64	64
18218 Paradise Mountaind Rd #174	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-14%)	10mo	$149,000	$97	63
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 79	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,530 (-14%)	10mo	$115,000	$75	62
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 11	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-13%)	21mo	$180,000	$115	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $13,726
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $87,474
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $642/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$681
• Net cashflow: $927

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,067

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,085	-5% $1,006	+0% $927	+5% $848	+10% $769
Rent	-10% $671	-5% $799	+0% $927	+5% $1,055	+10% $1,183
Rate	-1.0pp $1,068	-0.5pp $998	base $927	+0.5pp $855	+1.0pp $782

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-01
   listed $279,000 Active
4. 2026-01-01
   historical
5. 2025-07-04
   listed $299,000 Active
6. 2025-07-04
   historical
7. 2025-03-10
   price $309,900
8. 2025-01-04
   listed $324,900 Active
9. 2025-01-01
   historical
10. 2024-08-28
    historical
11. 2024-08-27
    listed $339,900 Active
12. 2024-06-08
    listed $359,900 Active
13. 2024-06-01
    historical
14. 2024-02-15
    listed $359,900 Active
15. 2010-09-03
    soldstatus $111,999
16. 2010-07-09
    listed $111,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $642 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,120 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,478/yr (+$123/mo · 230.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$642
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,111
• − Management: −$3,111
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable income: $6,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,653
• After-tax cash flow: $9,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+149.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-02-26 Contingent — SDMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $279,000 SDMLS
• 2025-07-04 Listed $299,000 SDMLS
• 2025-07-04 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $309,900 SDMLS
• 2025-01-04 Listed $324,900 SDMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-08-28 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-08-27 Listed $339,900 SDMLS
• 2024-06-08 Listed $359,900 SDMLS
• 2024-06-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-02-15 Listed $359,900 SDMLS
• 2010-09-03 Sold (MLS) $111,999 CRMLS
• 2010-07-09 Listed $111,999 CRMLS

Property tax history

-17.4%/yr

Latest (2013): $642 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.