10810 Tioga Dr · Bayonet Point, FL 34668

$81,800

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1972 4,001 sqft lot $200/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER FINANCING with reasonable terms to fit your budget for this ABSOLUTELY STUNNING & TURN-KEY! Welcome home to this meticulously updated residence at 10810 Tioga Dr nestled in the highly sought-after, gated 55+ cooperative of Senate Manor. This is Florida living at its absolute finest! Step inside to discover a bright and airy OPEN FLOOR PLAN that radiates a "brand new" feel. This home has been thoughtfully renovated with modern living in mind, featuring gorgeous luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring throughout for a seamless look. The heart of the home is the fully renovated kitchen boasting crisp cabinetry, stylish countertops perfect for whipping up a meal before heading

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Updated bathroom
• Large storage shed

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• COVERED CARPORT PARKING
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• HEATED POOL
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees reported as $2,400
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Part of Senate Manor HOA; Monthly HOA fee $200 (required); Association approval required; Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Has a 1-space carport
• Utilities: Public sewer (connected/available); Water listed as none (water available/connected noted); Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Phone available; Broadband/High-speed internet available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Single wide; One story; Faces west; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Building area total listed as 1,352 sq ft; Built on 0.09-acre lot (approx.)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Living area listed as 848 sq ft (public records)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen and family room combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry: other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-419/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $76k (7.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 581 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $566 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,638 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.52%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $53,760
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6515 Margaret Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	8mo	$50,000	$74	60
7215 Lofty Dr	0.72mi	2/1.5	672 (0%)	7mo	$94,900	$141	59
6506 Cathy Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0	689 (+2%)	14mo	$55,000	$80	56
6612 Roosevelt Dr	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	576 (-14%)	11mo	$17,000	$30	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-17,518
• Equity at exit: $12,197

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-26,169
• Equity at exit: $7,073

Cash invested: $22,904 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34668

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$429
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $884/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,472

Max offer price $75,638

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-12	+0% $-35	+5% $-58	+10% $-81
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-91	+0% $-35	+5% $22	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-14	base $-35	+0.5pp $-56	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,450
• Closing costs: $2,454
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7110 Tudor Ln Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	676	$1,310	$1.94	4d	1	0.42mi
7110 Tudor Ln Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	676	$1,310	$1.94	25d	1	0.42mi
7213 Seward Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	25d	1	0.64mi
11430 Rohrman Rd Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	6d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $81,800 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $81,800 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $81,800 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $81,800 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $81,800 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $81,800 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $81,800 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $81,800 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $81,800 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $81,800 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $81,800 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $81,800 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $81,800 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-04-13
    price $81,800
15. 2026-03-20
    listed $82,800 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $884 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $884 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,582
• − Property taxes: −$884
• − Insurance: −$5,528
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,371
• − Management: −$1,371
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$2,380
• Taxable loss: −$1,376
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$330
• After-tax cash flow: $-88/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,442
• Household income: $47,401
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2699.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.64%
• Current HPI: 359.7163
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $81,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $82,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $884 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.