428 S 14th St · Haines City, FL 33844

$139,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1930 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors Special 3Br home with study, formal living room and dining room, fireplace, wood floors, front porch, Central H & A and 11/2 baths. Home sits on a large fenced yard with mature landscaping.

Key facts

• Growing market
• Spacious lot
• No hoa restrictions

Tags

• GROWING MARKET
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• SPACIOUS LOT
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R-1; Total acreage approximately 0.29 acres
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Paved road access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Other roof type; Crawlspace foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Paved lot/driveway; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ductless heating; Central air conditioning; Wall/window AC units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds; Wood flooring; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $97k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.57%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,168
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $45,420
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,130 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,408/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,363

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $686	-5% $646	+0% $606	+5% $567	+10% $527
Rent	-10% $438	-5% $522	+0% $606	+5% $691	+10% $775
Rate	-1.0pp $677	-0.5pp $642	base $606	+0.5pp $570	+1.0pp $533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
963 E Main St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1545	$1,700	$1.10	15d	1	0.58mi
1931 Trinity Cir Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,500	$0.91	24d	1	0.67mi
128 Arlington Square Ct Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,300	$1.57	15d	1	0.89mi
401 W Florida Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,649	$1.18	14d	2	0.89mi
1339 Madison Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,990	$1.37	22d	1	0.90mi
375 Boardwalk Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,350	$1.36	15d	1	0.92mi
1336 Madison Cir Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,800	$1.62	24d	1	0.93mi
1916 Verano Dr Unit 1916C Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1727	$1,900	$1.10	24d	1	0.95mi
504 N 7th St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,870	$1.43	3d	1	1.03mi
1123 Patriot Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,150	$1.19	15d	1	1.07mi
1313 Tank Trl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,095	$1.44	24d	1	1.16mi
768 Richmond Estate Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	24d	1	1.27mi
1016 Avenue A Unit A Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1282	$1,875	$1.46	15d	1	1.28mi
105 Kenny Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1802	$2,600	$1.44	4d	1	1.39mi
570 Feltrim Manor Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,400	$1.31	24d	1	1.42mi
671 Tanaro Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1955	$2,200	$1.13	11d	1	1.43mi
2117 Winger Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	24d	1	1.45mi
660 Tanaro Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,000	$1.08	24d	1	1.46mi
640 Tanaro Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$2,100	$1.06	24d	1	1.47mi
755 Staffora St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$1,799	$1.16	24d	1	1.49mi
751 Staffora St Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1848	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	1.49mi
662 Fairview Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1776	$1,995	$1.12	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $139,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,408 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,408 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,408
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,045
• − Management: −$2,045
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $5,451
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,308
• After-tax cash flow: $5,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+43.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $139,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $97,000 Public Records
• 2006-02-16 Sold (MLS) $97,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-02 Listed $97,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,408 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.