322 Valley Ct · Lowell, IN 46356

$255,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1995 4,473 sqft lot $202/sqft · at area comps Est $253k · at est. $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! Cozy patio home with ensuite in Primary bedroom, skylights for abundant natural lighting, One level home with cathedral ceilings, ceiling fans, large closets in bedrooms. Built in bookshelf in secondary bedroom, newer carpet, One year old refrigerator and washer. Side yard is gated with picket fence and front door entrance is to the side of the yard. Two car attached garage, Storm doors. Walking path, gazebo, pond and Pavilion for community gatherings and meetings. Close to shopping and highways.

Key facts

• Picket fence
• Gazebo
• Cathedral ceilings

Tags

• ENSUITE IN PRIMARY BEDROOM
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• SIDE YARD IS GATED
• PICKET FENCE
• WALKING PATH
• GAZEBO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-7/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Lowell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in IN, #3,455 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Hill Elementary School (math 69% / reading 54%, grade B, #117 of 994 statewide, top 12%, 563 students, 30% FRL); Lowell Middle School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D, #81 of 330 statewide, top 25%, 742 students, 33% FRL); Lowell Senior High School (math 31% / reading 75%, grade C-, #99 of 369 statewide, top 27%, 1,033 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 351 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $212,167 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,729
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: 0.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 Valley Ct	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,251 (-1%)	0mo	$255,000	$204	98
648 Beech Ct	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,316 (+4%)	2mo	$240,000	$182	86
653 Aspen Ct	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,232 (-2%)	8mo	$210,000	$170	84
8442 Kannon Dr	0.32mi	2/—	1,224 (-3%)	8mo	$263,507	$215	74
8503 Graystone Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,334 (+6%)	9mo	$275,058	$206	64
216 Cherokee Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,204 (-4%)	4mo	$295,000	$245	61
203 Cherokee Dr	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,344 (+7%)	9mo	$295,400	$220	56
8674 Graystone Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,428 (+13%)	4mo	$296,658	$208	54
8621 Graystone Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,428 (+13%)	4mo	$300,608	$211	54
658 Apache Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-1%)	7mo	$245,000	$196	53
8528 Graystone Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,428 (+13%)	9mo	$324,990	$228	52
8590 Graystone Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,428 (+13%)	8mo	$279,507	$196	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-41,378
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-36,161
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46356

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,598/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,122

Max offer price $254,899

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $72	+0% $-1	+5% $-73	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-84	+0% $-1	+5% $83	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $64	base $-1	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 Creekside Dr Lowell, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,490	$1.55	0d	7	0.19mi
8366 Kannon Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,450	$1.33	0d	1	0.27mi
8301 Kannon Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.5	1717	$2,800	$1.63	17d	1	0.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-02-13
   price $255,000 516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (516 chars)

   Welcome home! Cozy patio home with ensuite in Primary bedroom, skylights for abundant natural lighting, One level home with cathedral ceilings, ceiling fans, large closets in bedrooms. Built in bookshelf in secondary bedroom, newer carpet, One year old refrigerator and washer. Side yard is gated with picket fence and front door entrance is to the side of the yard. Two car attached garage, Storm doors. Walking path, gazebo, pond and Pavilion for community gatherings and meetings. Close to shopping and highways.

2. 2026-01-19
   listed $260,000 Active 516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (516 chars)

   Welcome home! Cozy patio home with ensuite in Primary bedroom, skylights for abundant natural lighting, One level home with cathedral ceilings, ceiling fans, large closets in bedrooms. Built in bookshelf in secondary bedroom, newer carpet, One year old refrigerator and washer. Side yard is gated with picket fence and front door entrance is to the side of the yard. Two car attached garage, Storm doors. Walking path, gazebo, pond and Pavilion for community gatherings and meetings. Close to shopping and highways.

3. 2012-11-08
   historical
4. 2012-06-25
   listed $115,000
5. 2012-03-01
   historical
6. 2011-09-01
   listed $149,900
7. 2011-07-08
   historical
8. 2011-05-18
   historical
9. 2010-10-29
   listed $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,598 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,883 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 17.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$1,598
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,037
• − Management: −$2,037
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,389
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $1,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Creek School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1811460
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,614
• Composite: 44.97/100
• National rank: #2704
• State rank: #39 of 301 in IN

Livability — Lowell

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #3455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lowell, IN
• City population: 19,396
• Population (ZIP): 19,396

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Iranian 10% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.73%
• Current HPI: 256.6224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+70.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $255,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-19 Listed $260,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-08 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-25 Listed $115,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-01 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-01 Listed $149,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-08 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-18 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-29 Listed $150,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,598 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.