Blanco Plan · Conroe, TX 77303

$262,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 494 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Blanco floor plan embodies the ideal home for most any lifestyle with enough space for everyone. This home includes a two-and-a-half-car garage that serves you with the extra space you need to keep your tools, holiday decorations, or for anything else you may need to store! The entrance of the Blanco home boasts a private study room, a powder room with a white pedestal sink and decorative mirror, and an exclusive two-story dining space right down the hall. Connected to the dining space is an open-concept kitchen. The kitchen has everything you want and more - complete with sleek granite counters, ample counterspace, a large walk-in pantry, and even the option for a sizable island! You will then come across the oversized family room, perfect for gatherings with family and friends. If you are looking to embrace the great outdoors, lead the way from your family room to your optional covered patio. Your secluded Master Bedroom awaits down the hall with three windows, letting abundant natural light seep in. Attached is your master bathroom which allows for double vanities with LED down lighting, a linen shelf, a standard shower/bathtub enclosure, and a massive walk-in closet. Want to escalate the master bathroom a tad bit more? Decide to have a master bathroom super shower instead, or a luxury bath for optimal relaxation. You deserve to feel comfortable, relaxed, and at peace in your new home! Heading up the stairs, you will find three additional bedrooms, all with spacious. ..

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Powder room
• Private study room

Tags

• PRIVATE STUDY ROOM
• POWDER ROOM
• TWO-STORY DINING SPACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY
• OVERSIZED FAMILY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $262,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $325,553.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-577 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Austin El (math 39% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 884 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 494 days — a 12% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,784 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 494 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.59%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,553
• List price: $262,990
• Delta: -19.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9203 White Tail Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,287 (+0%)	4mo	$469,000	$205	66
4618 Axis Trl	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,396 (+5%)	5mo	$515,000	$215	64
9171 Whitetail Dr	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,444 (+7%)	6mo	$459,900	$188	58
9708 Sunny Valley Rd	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,109 (-8%)	4mo	$263,000	$125	53
9706 Caney Bend Rd	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-12%)	2mo	$264,900	$132	49
14431 Elmfield Ln	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+7%)	4mo	$299,900	$123	49
9719 Caney Bend Rd	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-12%)	2mo	$279,900	$139	47
14435 Elmfield Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-12%)	4mo	$253,900	$126	44
14419 Elmfield Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-12%)	4mo	$259,900	$129	44
14223 Spring Valley Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-12%)	8mo	$264,900	$132	43
9665 Caney Trails Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,988 (-13%)	2mo	$270,000	$136	42
9530 Shady Trail Dr	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,439 (+7%)	7mo	$288,900	$118	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-95,660
• Equity at exit: $48,541

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-154,454
• Equity at exit: $28,148

Cash invested: $91,155 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 46 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $275,578 ($131/sqft)
• Median days on market: 117 d
• This list price: 39% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 884
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$407 /mo · $4,883/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,848

Max offer price $242,099

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-352	-5% $-464	+0% $-577	+5% $-689	+10% $-802
Rent	-10% $-744	-5% $-660	+0% $-577	+5% $-493	+10% $-409
Rate	-1.0pp $-413	-0.5pp $-494	base $-577	+0.5pp $-661	+1.0pp $-747

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,388
• Closing costs: $9,767
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9302 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1628	$1,775	$1.09	93d	1	0.11mi
9262 Laiden Creek Trl Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1601	$2,130	$1.33	0d	13	0.12mi
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 306 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,000	$1.12	32d	1	0.13mi
9248 Laiden Creek Trl Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,000	$1.12	34d	1	0.13mi
14419 Sunny Bend Way Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$600	$0.33	23d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $262,990 Active 494 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $262,990 Active 492 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $262,990 Active 491 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $262,990 Active 490 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $262,990 Active 489 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $262,990 Active 486 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $262,990 Active 484 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $262,990 Active 483 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $262,990 Active 481 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $262,990 Active 479 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $262,990 Active 478 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $262,990 Active 477 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $262,990 Active 476 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $262,990 Active 475 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $262,990 Active 473 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $262,990 Active 472 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $262,990 Active 471 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $262,990 Active 470 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $262,990 Active 469 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 468 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 467 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $262,990 Active 466 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $262,990 Active 465 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $262,990 Active 464 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $262,990 Active 462 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,990 Active 461 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $262,990 Active 460 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $262,990 Active 459 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $262,990 Active 458 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $262,990 Active 457 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $262,990 Active 456 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $262,990 Active 455 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $262,990 Active 454 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $262,990 Active 453 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $262,990 Active 452 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $262,990 Active 451 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $262,990 Active 449 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $262,990 Active 447 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $262,990 Active 446 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $262,990 Active 443 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $262,990 Active 442 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $262,990 Active 441 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $262,990 Active 440 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $262,990 Active 438 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $262,990 Active 434 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $262,990 Active 433 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $262,990 Active 432 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $262,990 Active 429 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,990 Active 428 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $262,990 Active 427 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,236
• − Property taxes: −$4,883
• − Insurance: −$1,628
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,033
• − Management: −$2,033
• − Depreciation: −$9,471
• Taxable loss: −$12,870
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,089
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Cut and Shoot, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious floor plan, modern finishes, and a well-maintained exterior, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
• Rental Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can attract more renters and increase rental value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing the bathrooms can make the home more attractive to buyers looking for updated spaces. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Austin El F TX #2,149/4,322 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 Middle Moorhead J H F TX #704/1,662 Nat'l #6,453/14,009 High Conroe H S F TX #767/1,632 Nat'l #7,907/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

---

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $262,990 Zillow