766 Dividing Creek Rd · Severna Park, MD 21012

$480,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1900 0.44 ac lot $195/sqft · 22% below area Est $619k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market! Welcome home to this charming historic property, built prior to 1900 and situated in the heart of Arnold. A newly added entry patio and inviting screened porch set the tone, offering the perfect place to relax and welcome guests. Inside, timeless character shines with original hardwood floors flowing through the expansive living and dining areas. The dining space features built-in shelving, adding charm and function. The kitchen offers a large pantry and abundant shelving, perfect for storage and displaying your favorite pieces. Beyond the kitchen you'll find a cozy sitting room and a spacious family room, creating flexible living spaces to suit your needs. The main lev

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (2 spaces); Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Home design: Detached home; Above-grade finished living area reported by assessor; Finished above-grade area and below-grade area reported by assessor
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Block foundation; Other structures both above and below grade
• Exterior features: Water-oriented property on the Magothy River (Buckinghams Cove) with winter water views; Tidal water: No

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One half bathroom on the upper level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Level entry at main

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $460k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $365k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Severna Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in MD, #2,690 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Monarch Global Academy Pcs Laurel Campus (math 13% / reading 28%, grade F, #341 of 860 statewide, top 40%, 830 students, 53% FRL); Severn River Middle (math 26% / reading 55%, grade F, #25 of 225 statewide, top 11%, 734 students, 20% FRL); Broadneck High (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #40 of 222 statewide, top 19%, 2,174 students, 19% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Anne Arundel County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $480k implies a 249% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $365,211 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $618,975
• List price: $480,000
• Delta: -22.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
774 Dividing Creek Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	2,236 (-9%)	2mo	$500,000	$224	78
814 Manhattan Beach Rd	0.35mi	3/2.5	2,396 (-3%)	11mo	$625,000	$261	64
707 Lynngate Rd #12	0.18mi	3/2.5	2,750 (+12%)	3mo	$765,000	$278	63
807 Lilac Bush Ln #4	0.25mi	3/2.5	2,201 (-10%)	8mo	$570,000	$259	58
861 Twin Harbor Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,296 (-7%)	0mo	$805,000	$351	58
853 Buckingham Cove Rd	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,188 (-11%)	4mo	$470,000	$215	56
903 Old County Rd	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,496 (+2%)	0mo	$675,000	$270	53
721 Magothy Rd	0.28mi	3/3.0	2,795 (+14%)	11mo	$1,015,000	$363	47
731 Mccann Rd	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,354 (-4%)	8mo	$630,000	$268	42
316 Raussell Pl	0.51mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,816 (+14%)	0mo	$816,000	$290	37
204 Mill Ct	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,796 (+14%)	10mo	$860,000	$308	33
227 Millchurch Rd	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,198 (-11%)	10mo	$605,000	$275	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-85,051
• Equity at exit: $71,570

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-83,815
• Equity at exit: $41,502

Cash invested: $134,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21012

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,652 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,359/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$767
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,794

Max offer price $460,228

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $160	-5% $24	+0% $-112	+5% $-248	+10% $-384
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-256	+0% $-112	+5% $32	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $10	base $-112	+0.5pp $-236	+1.0pp $-363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,000
• Closing costs: $14,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
903 Country Ter Severna Park, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$4,700	$2.94	25d	1	0.65mi
770 Trenton Ave Severna Park, MD	3.0	2.5	2139	$3,250	$1.52	45d	1	1.08mi
1062 Brightleaf Dr Arnold, MD	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,600	$1.59	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $480,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $480,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $480,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $480,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $480,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $480,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $480,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $480,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $480,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-05-15
    historical Active Under Contract 1521-char remark
11. 2026-04-23
    listed $500,000 Active 1521-char remark
12. 2026-04-22
    historical $500,000 1521-char remark
13. 2006-07-10
    soldstatus $137,500
14. 2006-07-10
    soldstatus $137,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,359 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,296 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$936/yr (+$78/mo · 27.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,887
• − Property taxes: −$3,359
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,506
• − Management: −$3,506
• − Depreciation: −$13,964
• Taxable loss: −$9,797
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,351
• After-tax cash flow: $1,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anne Arundel County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $87,880
• Composite: 28.52/100
• National rank: #6733
• State rank: #10 of 24 in MD

Livability — Severna Park

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #2690

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Severna Park, MD
• County: Anne Arundel County · 535,653 people
• City population: 28,591
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 22,570
• Household income: $139,432
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 271.0

Population outlook (Anne Arundel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 617,384 people
• By 2030: 642,094 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 686,621 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 723,031 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 809,346 · +31.1%
• By 2100: 837,658 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anne Arundel

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.7% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.7pp toward D · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+14.5 2016: D+0.7 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -469.24%
• Current HPI: 288.2944
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+249.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $480,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-05 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $500,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon $500,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records
• 2006-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,359 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.