3771 Ste Rte 121 S · Murray, KY 42071

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,363 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 242 Days on market

1.14 ac lot Est $170k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into a timeless classic: a charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath brick ranch with three carports. The low-maintenance brick exterior delivers lasting curb appeal, while the single-story layout offers effortless flow and accessibility. The home features two ADA entry/exit ramps — one provides direct access to a bedroom with handrails where a bed can be placed as needed. The adjacent bathroom includes an accessible sink/vanity and roll-in shower. Enjoy the comfort of your private en-suite bathroom featuring a sleek shower and a stylish single vanity. Relax on the private back deck overlooking a spacious fenced yard, plus a storage shed with electricity ideal for projects. Conveniently located to town, schools & shopping! Buyer to verify sq ft & acreage.

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Private back deck
• Fenced yard

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• SINGLE STORY LAYOUT
• PRIVATE BACK DECK
• FENCED YARD
• STORAGE SHED WITH ELECTRICITY
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.6% in Murray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#380 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Calloway County (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #19 of 165 in KY (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Calloway County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calloway County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $149k implies a 326% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.16%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,375
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3771 Ste Rte 121 S	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,363 (0%)	1mo	$153,200	$112	100
3195 Old Salem Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,364 (+0%)	19mo	$170,000	$125	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,116
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $29,948
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42071

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,338 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $824/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,155

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,000 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,000 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,000 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $149,000 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-04-21
   price $149,000 777-char remark

   Show marketing remark (777 chars)

   Step into a timeless classic: a charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath brick ranch with three carports. The low-maintenance brick exterior delivers lasting curb appeal, while the single-story layout offers effortless flow and accessibility. The home features two ADA entry/exit ramps — one provides direct access to a bedroom with handrails where a bed can be placed as needed. The adjacent bathroom includes an accessible sink/vanity and roll-in shower. Enjoy the comfort of your private en-suite bathroom featuring a sleek shower and a stylish single vanity. Relax on the private back deck overlooking a spacious fenced yard, plus a storage shed with electricity ideal for projects. Conveniently located to town, schools & shopping! Buyer to verify sq ft & acreage.

6. 2026-02-27
   price $170,000 777-char remark

   Show marketing remark (777 chars)

   Step into a timeless classic: a charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath brick ranch with three carports. The low-maintenance brick exterior delivers lasting curb appeal, while the single-story layout offers effortless flow and accessibility. The home features two ADA entry/exit ramps — one provides direct access to a bedroom with handrails where a bed can be placed as needed. The adjacent bathroom includes an accessible sink/vanity and roll-in shower. Enjoy the comfort of your private en-suite bathroom featuring a sleek shower and a stylish single vanity. Relax on the private back deck overlooking a spacious fenced yard, plus a storage shed with electricity ideal for projects. Conveniently located to town, schools & shopping! Buyer to verify sq ft & acreage.

7. 2025-12-29
   price $175,000 777-char remark

   Show marketing remark (777 chars)

   Step into a timeless classic: a charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath brick ranch with three carports. The low-maintenance brick exterior delivers lasting curb appeal, while the single-story layout offers effortless flow and accessibility. The home features two ADA entry/exit ramps — one provides direct access to a bedroom with handrails where a bed can be placed as needed. The adjacent bathroom includes an accessible sink/vanity and roll-in shower. Enjoy the comfort of your private en-suite bathroom featuring a sleek shower and a stylish single vanity. Relax on the private back deck overlooking a spacious fenced yard, plus a storage shed with electricity ideal for projects. Conveniently located to town, schools & shopping! Buyer to verify sq ft & acreage.

8. 2025-10-03
   listed $190,000 Active 777-char remark

   Show marketing remark (777 chars)

   Step into a timeless classic: a charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath brick ranch with three carports. The low-maintenance brick exterior delivers lasting curb appeal, while the single-story layout offers effortless flow and accessibility. The home features two ADA entry/exit ramps — one provides direct access to a bedroom with handrails where a bed can be placed as needed. The adjacent bathroom includes an accessible sink/vanity and roll-in shower. Enjoy the comfort of your private en-suite bathroom featuring a sleek shower and a stylish single vanity. Relax on the private back deck overlooking a spacious fenced yard, plus a storage shed with electricity ideal for projects. Conveniently located to town, schools & shopping! Buyer to verify sq ft & acreage.

9. 1983-05-01
   soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,281 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$458/yr (+$38/mo · 55.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$824
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$765
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$184
• After-tax cash flow: $1,920/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calloway County
• NCES district ID: 2100870
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $38,849
• Composite: 38.39/100
• National rank: #4208
• State rank: #19 of 165 in KY

Livability — Murray

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #18091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Calloway County · 30,981 people
• City population: 30,981
• Metro: Murray, KY
• Population (ZIP): 30,981
• Household income: $50,198
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1046.0

Population outlook (Calloway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,071 people
• By 2030: 42,608 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 45,435 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 48,501 · +18.1%
• By 2075: 56,481 · +37.5%
• By 2100: 63,271 · +54.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calloway

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.2% · R 68.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.43%
• Current HPI: 274.5366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Murray, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+325.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $149,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $170,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $175,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $190,000 WKRMLS
• 1983-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $824 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.