254 Southwinds Dr · Gulf Gate, FL 34231

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 471 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1967 $195/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Living the Easy Life is RIGHT HERE at 254 Southwinds Dr, in desirable South Winds Mobile Home Park Co-Op! Just a few ( 5 ) minutes to Siesta Key! The amenities in this charming 55t community include a Clubhouse and Cpmmunity Pool, with plenty of activies to enjoy!! South Winds Mobile Home Park Co-Op has an on site office and manager. HOA fee also includes Lawn Care, Cable TV, Water - YES all this and more for a low monthly HOA fee of $195. This sweet mobile home is a 2 bedroom, 2 bath with central AC just 3 years old, an eat in kitchen, plus a living room/dining room combo. Being sold furnished. OF course the residents here are so happy and friendly - with everything this lovingly cared for Co-Op community offers - it is truly a model of how Mobile Home Parks should look and be managed!

Key facts

• Water
• On site office
• Clubhouse

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• ON SITE OFFICE
• LAWN CARE
• CABLE TV
• WATER

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $139,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 562 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $139k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,659 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.06%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,878
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,205
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34231

• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 562
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,467/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$195
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,398

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $195 · $2,340/yr
• Likely covers: watercablelandscapingpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    listed $139,000 Active 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Living the Easy Life is RIGHT HERE at 254 Southwinds Dr, in desirable South Winds Mobile Home Park Co-Op! Just a few ( 5 ) minutes to Siesta Key! The amenities in this charming 55t community include a Clubhouse and Cpmmunity Pool, with plenty of activies to enjoy!! South Winds Mobile Home Park Co-Op has an on site office and manager. HOA fee also includes Lawn Care, Cable TV, Water - YES all this and more for a low monthly HOA fee of $195. This sweet mobile home is a 2 bedroom, 2 bath with central AC just 3 years old, an eat in kitchen, plus a living room/dining room combo. Being sold furnished. OF course the residents here are so happy and friendly - with everything this lovingly cared for Co-Op community offers - it is truly a model of how Mobile Home Parks should look and be managed!

17. 2013-02-08
    soldstatus $50,000
18. 1998-04-24
    soldstatus $29,800
19. 1996-06-07
    soldstatus $24,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,467 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,467 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,467
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − HOA: −$2,340
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $1,506
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$361
• After-tax cash flow: $3,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gulf Gate

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 32,203
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,404
• Household income: $69,925
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1983.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -448.92%
• Current HPI: 292.9055
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.13%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+476.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1998-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $29,800 Public Records
• 1996-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $24,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,467 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.