431 Goebel St · Berlin, NH 03570

$88,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1940 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LISTING #5486,VERY AFFORDABLE IN TOWN HOME ALL SYSTEMS OPERATIONAL, MAY NEED SOME COSMETIC UPDATES. POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL BUSINESS OR SHOP. GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY FOR THE BARGAIN HUNTER. PRICED TO MOVE. IT`S BOUND TO SELL FAST!!!

Key facts

• Large deck
• Kitchen
• Living room

Tags

• LARGE DECK
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• LIVING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• OFFICE OR PLAYROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 7.1% in Berlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#67 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Berlin School District (town): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #91 of 98 in NH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Berlin Elementary School (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #188 of 263 statewide, top 71%, 422 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($612 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Coos County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $88k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $85,845 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.34%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
485 Champlain St	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,548 (+9%)	5mo	$110,000	$71	72
479 Burgess St	0.11mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,219 (-14%)	2mo	$136,000	$112	63
285 School St	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,399 (-2%)	7mo	$80,000	$57	59
507 First Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,374 (-3%)	4mo	$153,500	$112	58
116 Washington St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,519 (+7%)	1mo	$228,000	$150	54
665 Gendron St	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,345 (-5%)	3mo	$200,000	$149	54
96 Clark St	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,528 (+8%)	2mo	$220,000	$144	53
342 First Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,254 (-12%)	4mo	$165,000	$132	49
518 Western Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,237 (-13%)	1mo	$160,000	$129	45
104 Summer St	0.75mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,276 (-10%)	3mo	$220,000	$172	39
123 Mount Forist St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,265 (-11%)	10mo	$92,500	$73	36
291 First Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,210 (-15%)	10mo	$164,999	$136	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $72,483
• Equity at exit: $79,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.86×
• Total profit: $194,820
• Equity at exit: $171,936

Cash invested: $24,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03570

• Home prices YoY: 14.3%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,552 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$464
• Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,153/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,072

Max offer price $88,500

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,125
• Closing costs: $2,655
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-11-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-26
   status Active
3. 2025-09-17
   status Pending
4. 2025-09-09
   status Active
5. 2025-09-03
   historical
6. 2025-09-03
   listed $88,500 Active
7. 2014-07-25
   soldstatus $55,000
8. 2002-02-20
   soldstatus $14,000 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   LISTING #5486,VERY AFFORDABLE IN TOWN HOME ALL SYSTEMS OPERATIONAL, MAY NEED SOME COSMETIC UPDATES. POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL BUSINESS OR SHOP. GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY FOR THE BARGAIN HUNTER. PRICED TO MOVE. IT`S BOUND TO SELL FAST!!!

9. 1997-12-18
   listed $17,000 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   LISTING #5486,VERY AFFORDABLE IN TOWN HOME ALL SYSTEMS OPERATIONAL, MAY NEED SOME COSMETIC UPDATES. POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL BUSINESS OR SHOP. GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY FOR THE BARGAIN HUNTER. PRICED TO MOVE. IT`S BOUND TO SELL FAST!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,153 · $346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,153 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥85°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,957
• − Property taxes: −$4,153
• − Insurance: −$442
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,489
• − Management: −$1,489
• − Depreciation: −$2,575
• Taxable income: $3,512
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$843
• After-tax cash flow: $3,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berlin School District
• NCES district ID: 3301860
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $37,494
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8095
• State rank: #91 of 98 in NH

Livability — Berlin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #11665

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berlin, NH
• City population: 9,473
• Population (ZIP): 9,473

Population outlook (Coos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,912 people
• By 2030: 29,872 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 27,449 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 25,049 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 19,584 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 13,818 · -55.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 21% German 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Coos

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 42.7% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.1pp toward R · 2008: 18.3pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+5.9 2016: R+9.1 2012: D+17.6 2008: D+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.16%
• Current HPI: 440.9127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+420.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-07 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-26 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-17 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-09 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-03 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $88,500 PrimeMLS
• 2014-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-20 Sold (MLS) $14,000 PrimeMLS
• 1997-12-18 Listed $17,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,153 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.