4417 Cogbill Rd · Meadowbrook, VA 23234

$275,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1949 0.37 ac lot Est $311k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Coming Soon: Great 4-bedroom home featuring vinyl siding, vinyl replacement windows, a recently replaced heat pump, and a newer dimensional shingle roof. Interior highlights include beautiful hardwood floors, fresh paint, and a recently renovated full bathroom. The functional floor plan offers a spacious family room, kitchen with adjoining dining area, and a mud/laundry room with convenient side entry. Two bedrooms are located on the first floor, with two additional generously sized bedrooms on the second level. Outside, a large detached workshop provides excellent space for hobbies, storage, or projects (conveys as-is). Conveniently located and move-in ready, this home offers comfort, cha

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Built 1949
• Listed 11 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Oversized garage with workshop
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-story; Approximate year built; Shingle roof; Zoned R15
• Construction: Block, frame and drywall construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Front porch; Side porch; Stoop; Porch; Exterior lighting

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Electric heating
• Interior features: Thermal windows; Dining area; Main-level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($241/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Meadowbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#161 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hopkins Road Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 773 students, 81% FRL); Falling Creek Middle (math 28% / reading 46%, grade F, #319 of 342 statewide, top 93%, 1,419 students, 80% FRL); Meadowbrook High (math 22% / reading 65%, grade F, #314 of 319 statewide, top 98%, 2,033 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 26% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Chesterfield County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $275k implies a 423% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,439 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,388
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4741 Arundel Ave	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,243 (-8%)	3mo	$316,000	$254	66
4825 Stanley Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-4%)	6mo	$317,500	$245	64
4846 Stanley Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,254 (-7%)	5mo	$287,000	$229	61
4812 Cogbill Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (+3%)	14mo	$263,000	$189	61
5533 Upp St	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,456 (+8%)	9mo	$320,000	$220	53
6006 Meadwood Cir	0.24mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,164 (-14%)	7mo	$299,000	$257	53
4812 Twila Ln	0.38mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,170 (-13%)	1mo	$294,950	$252	52
4219 Berrybrook Dr	0.52mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,288 (-4%)	19mo	$315,000	$245	46
6217 Meadwood Cir	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,164 (-14%)	11mo	$202,000	$174	43
4748 Cascade St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,278 (-5%)	21mo	$295,000	$231	33
6212 Philbrook Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,544 (+14%)	11mo	$315,000	$204	28
4200 Jackie Ln	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,544 (+14%)	20mo	$272,000	$176	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-45,714
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-47,926
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23234

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,071/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,189

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $98	+0% $20	+5% $-58	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-155	-5% $-67	+0% $20	+5% $108	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $90	base $20	+0.5pp $-51	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3501 Meadowdale Blvd North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	910	$2,060	$2.26	3d	17	1.06mi
3814 Falstone Rd Unit N Richmond, VA	3.0	1.5	1776	$2,295	$1.29	45d	1	1.06mi
4800 Burnt Oak Dr North Chesterfield, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1047	$1,594	$1.52	3d	9	1.16mi
4502 Cinderwood Dr North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,200	$1.43	19d	1	1.18mi
3907 Harvette Dr North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,600	$1.53	19d	1	1.32mi
5314 Whetstone Rd Richmond, VA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1029	$2,150	$2.09	3d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $275,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $275,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-05
    listed $275,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,071 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$184/yr (+$15/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$2,071
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,126
• − Management: −$2,126
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,529
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,087
• After-tax cash flow: $1,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Meadowbrook

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #5004

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadowbrook, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 46,284
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 47,465
• Household income: $66,619
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2031.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 18% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.50%
• Current HPI: 317.6006
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.93%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+3042.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $275,000 CVRMLS
• 1992-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $52,600 Public Records
• 1992-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $8,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,071 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.