7930 Route 16 Lot 61 · Franklinville, NY 14737

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 244 Days on market

Built 2023 $82/sqft · 241% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW HOME, Move in Ready, 2 bedroom, 2 full bath Manufactured home. 2x6 Exterior walls, architectural shingles, thermal windows. Spacious living room, open to eat in kitchen. Gray flat panel cabinets, gas stove, refrigerator and dishwasher. Stainless Steel deep well sink. Owner bedroom with large closet. Owner Bath walk in shower, 36" high vanity. Main bath has tub/shower, vanity. Interior whole house water shut off, vinyl skirting, 20 ft awning, 8x10 storage shed. Located in well maintained, quiet community with a country setting, close to golf course, shopping. Star tax Credit eligible. 1 pet policy per home

Key facts

• Thermal windows
• 20 ft awning
• Gas stove

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• THERMAL WINDOWS
• GAS STOVE
• STAINLESS STEEL DEEP WELL SINK
• WALK IN SHOWER
• 20 FT AWNING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($894 rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#856 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Franklinville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #281 of 590 in NY (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Franklinville Elementary School (math 67% / reading 52%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 286 students, 51% FRL); Franklinville Junior-Senior High School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 299 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $80k implies a 403% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.26%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $22,750
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: 251.21%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7930 Route 16 Lot# 40 Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0	980 (0%)	22mo	$12,000	$12	73
7930 Route 16 Lot 19	0.01mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (0%)	24mo	$29,900	$31	71
7930 Route 16 Lot 8	0.09mi	2/2.0	924 (-6%)	22mo	$19,900	$22	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $32,552
• Equity at exit: $49,866

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $88,184
• Equity at exit: $90,119

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14737

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $894 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $182	+0% $154	+5% $126	+10% $99
Rent	-10% $83	-5% $119	+0% $154	+5% $189	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $194	-0.5pp $174	base $154	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 244 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 243 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 239 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 238 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,900 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,900 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 225 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 224 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 223 DOM
17. 2025-10-20
    listed $79,900 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    NEW HOME, Move in Ready, 2 bedroom, 2 full bath Manufactured home. 2x6 Exterior walls, architectural shingles, thermal windows. Spacious living room, open to eat in kitchen. Gray flat panel cabinets, gas stove, refrigerator and dishwasher. Stainless Steel deep well sink. Owner bedroom with large closet. Owner Bath walk in shower, 36" high vanity. Main bath has tub/shower, vanity. Interior whole house water shut off, vinyl skirting, 20 ft awning, 8x10 storage shed. Located in well maintained, quiet community with a country setting, close to golf course, shopping. Star tax Credit eligible. 1 pet policy per home

18. 2025-10-12
    historical
19. 2024-10-12
    listed $84,596 Active
20. 2014-05-17
    listed $18,000
21. 2012-05-11
    soldstatus $15,900
22. 2010-05-28
    listed $15,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$858
• − Management: −$858
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $613
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$147
• After-tax cash flow: $1,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklinville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611490
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,110
• Composite: 49.0/100
• National rank: #2068
• State rank: #281 of 590 in NY

Livability — Franklinville

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #856
• US rank: #16514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,071

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 305.4492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+402.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-20 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-12 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-10-12 Listed $84,596 WNYREIS
• 2014-05-17 Listed $18,000 WNYREIS
• 2012-05-11 Sold (MLS) $15,900 WNYREIS
• 2010-05-28 Listed $15,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2015): $96 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.