Aaron Plan · Mayflower, AR 72106

$235,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,985 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

The Vineyard is a community offering brand-new single-family homes with small-town charm in central Arkansas, now selling in Mayflower, AR. Residents will be a short drive from major cities like Little Rock, with ample outdoor recreation available on nearby Lake Conway. The city provides a vibrant, intellectual atmosphere with two nearby universities, including Hendrix College, a prestigious liberal arts institution, and the University of Central Arkansas. Stock up on all essentials and more with fantastic deals and a wide selection of goods at Sam's Club.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 9 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 23 Vineyard Dr, Mayflower, AR 72106; Status: Active; Listing last modified: 2026-06-09
• Financial info: List price $235,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan named "Aaron"; New construction (Plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,985 square feet total)

🏗️ New construction. The $235,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $265,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $236k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-448 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#390 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mayflower School District (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #127 of 238 in AR (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $176,005 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.21%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,990
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Vineyard Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,852 (-7%)	0mo	$236,900	$128	88
113 E Sunbelt Ct	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,897 (-4%)	2mo	$258,500	$136	87
114 E Sunbelt Ct	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,897 (-4%)	4mo	$225,000	$119	86
110 E Sunbelt Ct	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,897 (-4%)	4mo	$225,000	$119	86
107 E Sunbelt Ct	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,897 (-4%)	3mo	$254,000	$134	85
108 E Sunbelt Ct	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,858 (-6%)	1mo	$252,000	$136	84
102 E Fredonia Ct	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,897 (-4%)	2mo	$262,000	$138	84
117 E Sunbelt Ct	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,858 (-6%)	2mo	$245,000	$132	84
112 E Sunbelt Ct	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,858 (-6%)	4mo	$225,000	$121	83
111 E Sunbelt Ct	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,858 (-6%)	4mo	$249,000	$134	82
105 E Sunbelt Ct	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,858 (-6%)	3mo	$235,000	$126	81
15 Concord Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-12%)	6mo	$235,000	$134	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $109,436
• Equity at exit: $232,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $343,026
• Equity at exit: $493,191

Cash invested: $74,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72106

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,760 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,395
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$332 /mo · $3,990/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-448

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,327

Max offer price $201,199

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,498
• Closing costs: $7,980
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	14d	1	0.04mi
11 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	43d	1	0.07mi
7 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1476	$1,750	$1.19	43d	1	0.10mi
110 Sunbelt Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1897	$1,750	$0.92	43d	1	0.10mi
5 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	43d	1	0.11mi
3 Vineyard Dr Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	14d	1	0.12mi
104 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1476	$1,750	$1.19	43d	1	0.16mi
103 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,650	$1.21	14d	1	0.17mi
101 E Fredonia Ct Mayflower, AR	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,923	$1.16	14d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 562-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $235,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,121
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,900
• − Property taxes: −$3,990
• − Insurance: −$1,330
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − Depreciation: −$7,738
• Taxable loss: −$10,216
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,452
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayflower School District
• NCES district ID: 0509540
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $47,119
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6760
• State rank: #127 of 238 in AR

Livability — Mayflower

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #22893

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mayflower, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,719

Population outlook (Faulkner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,985 people
• By 2030: 148,264 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 166,010 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 183,362 · +31.9%
• By 2075: 224,593 · +61.6%
• By 2100: 250,603 · +80.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Faulkner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.3) · D 32.6% · R 64.9% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.3pp · 2024: -32.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.3 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+31.6 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+25.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.62%
• Current HPI: 236.6197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B