406 S Union Ave · Roswell, NM 88203

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1985 8,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Owner financing negotiable! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers 768 sqft of potential and is ready to be brought back to life. The home features a well sized living area, kitchen with washer and dryer hookups, and two bedrooms that share a hall bath. Property is being sold as-is, where-is.

Key facts

• 8,000 sq ft lot
• Garage

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage; 1 covered parking space (total 1 parking space)
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Stucco exterior
• Exterior features: 8,000 sq ft lot (approx. 50 x 160)

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Window unit(s); No listed heating system
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Crawl space foundation access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in NM, #4,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Roswell Independent Schools (town): math 11% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 29 in NM (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 88 units permitted in Chaves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.01%
• DSCR: 3.14
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $27,570
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $69,929
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88203

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,103 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $336/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $560

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $588	-5% $574	+0% $560	+5% $546	+10% $532
Rent	-10% $473	-5% $517	+0% $560	+5% $604	+10% $647
Rate	-1.0pp $585	-0.5pp $573	base $560	+0.5pp $547	+1.0pp $534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 W Deming St Roswell, NM	2.0	1.0	792	$1,050	$1.33	44d	1	0.24mi
1303 W Bonita Dr Roswell, NM	2.0	1.0	840	$875	$1.04	44d	1	0.60mi
602 S Woody Dr Unit A Roswell, NM	1.0	1.0	550	$1,150	$2.09	44d	1	0.65mi
208 W 8th St Unit 003 Roswell, NM	2.0	1.0	850	$900	$1.06	44d	1	1.03mi
609 W 11th St Roswell, NM	1.0	1.0	971	$850	$0.88	44d	1	1.11mi
613 S Hemlock Ave Roswell, NM	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,150	$1.07	44d	1	1.21mi
1013 W 13th St Apt A Roswell, NM	1.0	1.0	650	$800	$1.23	44d	1	1.25mi
314 S Birch Ave Unit B2 Roswell, NM	1.0	1.0	876	$1,000	$1.14	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-12
   remarks 289-char remark
2. 2026-06-12
   listed $50,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $336 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $400 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: +$64/yr (+$5/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$336
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,059
• − Management: −$1,059
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $6,275
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,506
• After-tax cash flow: $5,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roswell Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502250
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 23.00%
• Median HH income: $38,848
• Composite: 26.21/100
• National rank: #7262
• State rank: #16 of 29 in NM

Livability — Roswell

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #4339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roswell, NM
• County: Chaves County · 56,277 people
• City population: 56,277
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• Population (ZIP): 28,753
• Household income: $42,207
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 995.0

Population outlook (Chaves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,122 people
• By 2030: 66,351 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 66,818 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 66,928 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 65,474 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 58,943 · -10.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% White 31% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Chaves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 26.8% · R 71.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+32.4 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.30%
• Current HPI: 151.1401
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $50,000 NMMLS
• 2014-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $336 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.