8221 Cinnamon Ln · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1988 7,229 sqft lot $340/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LAND OWNED AND ON THE WATER. VERY PEACEFUL LOCATION. IN LAST 2 YEARS, NEW AIR CONDITIONING, WASHER AND DRYER, ROOF & DISHWASHER. 7 NEW WINDOWS BEING INSTALLED BEFORE CLOSING. MOSTLY FURNISHED. HANDICAP RAMP INSTALLED TO BACK PORCH.

Key facts

• Lakefront
• Corner for privacy
• Large enclosed lanai

Tags

• LAKEFRONT
• LARGE ENCLOSED LANAI
• CORNER FOR PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a senior community; East of US-1 road frontage
• Financial info: Pets allowed (breed restrictions, number limits, possible pet restrictions)
• HOA & community: Community with HOA (monthly HOA fee applies); Association amenities include pool, fitness center, clubhouse, tennis, pickleball, shuffleboard, bocce, golf course/putting green, jogging path, spa/hot tub, sauna, billiard room, basketball and more; Internet included; Association covers cable TV, security, sewer, trash, common areas, recreation facility

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (covered) with 1 carport space and 2 additional open spaces
• Security: Gated (no guard); Security patrol
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Cable available; Underground utilities; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces east; Resale
• Construction: Modular construction; Composition/shingle roof; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Patio; Porch; Glass-enclosed porch; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Bedroom layout - stacked; Blinds and single-hung metal windows
• Laundry & utility: Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Savanna Ridge Elementary School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 452 students, 75% FRL); Port St. Lucie High School (math 21% / reading 43%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 1,748 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.88%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,464
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Giralda	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	4mo	$21,000	$18	80
3316 Ironwood Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,134 (-1%)	10mo	$208,500	$184	66
2948 Fiddlewood Cir	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,280 (+12%)	1mo	$122,000	$95	63
3422 Feriwinkle Ct	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,184 (+4%)	4mo	$205,000	$173	61
3033 Satinleaf Ln	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	4mo	$195,000	$156	60
2999 Saltbush Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	8mo	$176,000	$169	60
8506 Redbay Ct	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,036 (-9%)	6mo	$193,000	$186	58
2960 Fiddlewood Cir	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,246 (+9%)	22mo	$225,000	$181	52
8513 Redbay Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	21mo	$138,000	$133	48
10 Padre	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,280 (+12%)	4mo	$38,000	$30	48
3776 Satinwood Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,284 (+12%)	11mo	$175,000	$136	36
82 Spanish Way	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,245 (+9%)	22mo	$18,000	$14	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $20,486
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $55,042
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,894/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$340
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,273

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	23d	1	0.42mi
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	14d	15	0.43mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	14d	7	0.63mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	14d	6	0.67mi
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	23d	1	0.74mi
1131 SE Parrish Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0	902	$2,000	$2.22	23d	1	0.89mi
2058 SE Wild Meadow Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.5	1425	$2,200	$1.54	14d	1	0.89mi
2130 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,695	$1.18	14d	1	0.96mi
1455 SE Colchester Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	921	$1,795	$1.95	14d	1	1.04mi
2209 SE East Dunbrooke Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$2,950	$2.43	14d	1	1.08mi
1516 SE Royal Green Cir #202 Port St Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	921	$2,100	$2.28	23d	1	1.14mi
1503 SE Royal Green Cir Unit V104 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$1,750	$2.02	23d	1	1.14mi
1520 SE Royal Green Cir Unit K-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	23d	1	1.17mi
1565 SE Royal Green Cir #108 Port St Lucie, FL	1.0	1.0	705	$1,595	$2.26	14d	1	1.19mi
1524 SE Royal Green Cir Unit Q102 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	865	$1,800	$2.08	14d	1	1.20mi
1550 SE Royal Green Cir Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,850	$2.37	14d	1	1.20mi
1562 SE Royal Green Cir Unit T-204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,900	$2.43	23d	1	1.21mi
1566 SE Royal Green Cir #203 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$2,000	$2.56	14d	1	1.26mi
1537 SE Royal Green Cir Unit E204 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,750	$1.98	14d	1	1.30mi
1500 SE Tiffany Club Pl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,922	$2.15	14d	7	1.31mi
1618 SE Elkhart Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,200	$1.87	23d	1	1.34mi
1536 SE Royal Green Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,750	$2.24	23d	1	1.34mi
1550 SE Royal Green Cir Unit P-203 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	782	$1,750	$2.24	23d	1	1.35mi
1548 SE Royal Green Cir Unit M-103 Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	886	$1,800	$2.03	23d	1	1.37mi
1548 SE Royal Green Cir #108 Port St Lucie, FL	1.0	1.0	705	$1,650	$2.34	14d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $340 · $4,080/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-02-19
    status Active
18. 2026-02-11
    historical
19. 2026-01-05
    listed $75,000 Active
20. 2017-08-10
    soldstatus $89,000
21. 2017-07-31
    soldstatus $89,000 Sold 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    LAND OWNED AND ON THE WATER. VERY PEACEFUL LOCATION. IN LAST 2 YEARS, NEW AIR CONDITIONING, WASHER AND DRYER, ROOF & DISHWASHER. 7 NEW WINDOWS BEING INSTALLED BEFORE CLOSING. MOSTLY FURNISHED. HANDICAP RAMP INSTALLED TO BACK PORCH.

22. 2017-03-11
    status Pending 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    LAND OWNED AND ON THE WATER. VERY PEACEFUL LOCATION. IN LAST 2 YEARS, NEW AIR CONDITIONING, WASHER AND DRYER, ROOF & DISHWASHER. 7 NEW WINDOWS BEING INSTALLED BEFORE CLOSING. MOSTLY FURNISHED. HANDICAP RAMP INSTALLED TO BACK PORCH.

23. 2017-02-28
    historical Pending W/Cont 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    LAND OWNED AND ON THE WATER. VERY PEACEFUL LOCATION. IN LAST 2 YEARS, NEW AIR CONDITIONING, WASHER AND DRYER, ROOF & DISHWASHER. 7 NEW WINDOWS BEING INSTALLED BEFORE CLOSING. MOSTLY FURNISHED. HANDICAP RAMP INSTALLED TO BACK PORCH.

24. 2017-02-26
    listed $89,000 Active 237-char remark

    Show marketing remark (237 chars)

    LAND OWNED AND ON THE WATER. VERY PEACEFUL LOCATION. IN LAST 2 YEARS, NEW AIR CONDITIONING, WASHER AND DRYER, ROOF & DISHWASHER. 7 NEW WINDOWS BEING INSTALLED BEFORE CLOSING. MOSTLY FURNISHED. HANDICAP RAMP INSTALLED TO BACK PORCH.

25. 2015-02-05
    historical
26. 2015-01-30
    soldstatus $40,000
27. 2014-12-12
    historical
28. 2014-10-16
    historical
29. 2014-08-28
    listed $44,990
30. 2008-04-25
    listed $110,000
31. 2007-03-02
    soldstatus $103,000
32. 2006-06-14
    listed $115,000
33. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,894 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,894 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$2,894
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,879
• − Management: −$1,879
• − HOA: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $5,995
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,439
• After-tax cash flow: $5,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+435.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $75,000 Beaches MLS
• 2017-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-31 Sold (MLS) $89,000 MCRTC
• 2017-03-11 Pending — MCRTC
• 2017-02-28 Contingent — MCRTC
• 2017-02-26 Listed $89,000 MCRTC
• 2015-02-05 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2015-01-30 Sold (MLS) $40,000 Beaches MLS
• 2014-12-12 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2014-10-16 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2014-08-28 Listed $44,990 Beaches MLS
• 2008-04-25 Listed $110,000 Beaches MLS
• 2007-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-14 Listed $115,000 Beaches MLS
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,894 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.