1111 Archwood Dr SW #255 · Olympia, WA 98502

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 443 Days on market

Built 1988 $30/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained double-wide manufactured home located in the desirable Friendly Ridge 55+ community. This charming home features 3 bedrooms and 1.75 bathrooms, offering ample space for comfortable living. Enjoy a low-maintenance yard, complete with a handy storage shed for extra space and organization. With two carports, you’ll have plenty of room for parking. Conveniently situated near shopping, dining, and easy access to I-5, you’ll have everything you need just minutes away. Friendly Ridge offers a variety of amenities, including a game room, clubhouse, exercise room, and spa.

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Clubhouse
• Two carports

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD
• HANDY STORAGE SHED
• TWO CARPORTS
• GAME ROOM
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.3% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.98%
• DSCR: 6.25
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,263
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -55.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1111 Archwood Dr SW #306	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	4mo	$75,000	$48	80
1111 Archwood Dr SW #202	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	14mo	$110,000	$70	74
1111 Archwood Dr SW #226	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+7%)	16mo	$130,000	$73	74
1111 Archwood Dr SW #213	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	14mo	$150,000	$96	71
1111 Archwood Dr SW #429	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-9%)	10mo	$75,000	$49	68
1111 Archwood Dr SW #285	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (-15%)	1mo	$105,000	$73	64
1111 Archwood Dr SW #204	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	7mo	$95,000	$66	63
1111 Archwood Dr SW #246	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	19mo	$124,900	$87	51
1111 Archwood Dr SW #430	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	18mo	$64,900	$45	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.24×
• Total profit: $115,324
• Equity at exit: $45,044

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.40×
• Total profit: $271,542
• Equity at exit: $97,139

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,246 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $1,376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $504

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,405	-5% $1,391	+0% $1,376	+5% $1,362	+10% $1,348
Rent	-10% $1,199	-5% $1,288	+0% $1,376	+5% $1,465	+10% $1,554
Rate	-1.0pp $1,402	-0.5pp $1,389	base $1,376	+0.5pp $1,363	+1.0pp $1,350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 Yauger Way SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,131	$2.06	14d	13	0.27mi
1900 Black Lake Blvd SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,137	$2.31	14d	13	0.64mi
2010 8th Ct SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1072	$2,295	$2.14	21d	1	0.85mi
4611 Greenwood Dr SW Olympia, WA	3.0	3.0	1448	$2,495	$1.72	44d	1	0.88mi
300 Kenyon St NW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,995	$2.27	14d	6	0.89mi
2137 Conger Ave NW Unit A Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,995	$1.60	44d	1	1.19mi
2137 Conger Ave NW Unit C Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,895	$1.52	44d	1	1.19mi
5004 4th Way SW Olympia, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1271	$2,645	$2.08	14d	5	1.27mi
1626 Madison Ave NW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,100	$1.97	14d	1	1.33mi
1415 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,735	$1.65	14d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $50,000 Pending 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 439 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $50,000 Active 436 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $50,000 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $50,000 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $50,000 Active 431 DOM
11. 2026-05-07
    price $50,000
12. 2026-03-29
    price $65,000
13. 2026-01-20
    price $75,000
14. 2025-10-20
    price $85,000
15. 2025-09-08
    price $100,000
16. 2025-08-12
    price $107,500
17. 2025-05-13
    price $120,000
18. 2025-03-25
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,156
• − Management: −$2,156
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $16,756
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,021
• After-tax cash flow: $12,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olympia, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-61.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $50,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $65,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $75,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $85,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $100,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $107,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-25 Listed $130,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid