498 Beck Meadow Rd · Union, MO 63084

$84,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 161 Days on market

Built 2002 3.09 ac lot $80/sqft · 47% below area Est $159k · 47% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a project with BIG potential? This 3-acre property just outside town offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're dreaming of a quiet homestead, a weekend getaway spot, or an investment remodel, this parcel is ready for your vision. Water, sewer and electric are set up.

Key facts

• 3.09 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 160 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 2.6% in Union — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#210 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D+.
• Union R-XI (town): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #119 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 614 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (100 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $69k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $74,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.62%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,413
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -46.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $8,459
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $35,940
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63084

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $557/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $684

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $397	-5% $373	+0% $349	+5% $325	+10% $301
Rent	-10% $260	-5% $305	+0% $349	+5% $393	+10% $438
Rate	-1.0pp $392	-0.5pp $371	base $349	+0.5pp $327	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerelectric

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $84,900 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,900 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    price $84,900 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,500 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-03-30
    price $94,500 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Looking for a project with BIG potential? This 3-acre property just outside town offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're dreaming of a quiet homestead, a weekend getaway spot, or an investment remodel, this parcel is ready for your vision. Water, sewer and electric are set up.

13. 2026-01-08
    listed $99,000 Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Looking for a project with BIG potential? This 3-acre property just outside town offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're dreaming of a quiet homestead, a weekend getaway spot, or an investment remodel, this parcel is ready for your vision. Water, sewer and electric are set up.

14. 2025-12-08
    historical $99,000 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Looking for a project with BIG potential? This 3-acre property just outside town offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and opportunity. Whether you're dreaming of a quiet homestead, a weekend getaway spot, or an investment remodel, this parcel is ready for your vision. Water, sewer and electric are set up.

15. 2007-01-26
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $557 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$266/yr (+$22/mo · 47.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$557
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $2,980
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$715
• After-tax cash flow: $3,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Union R-XI
• NCES district ID: 2930570
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,410
• Composite: 35.85/100
• National rank: #4820
• State rank: #119 of 324 in MO

Livability — Union

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #10509

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Franklin County · 20,708 people
• City population: 20,708
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 20,708
• Household income: $75,992
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 134.0

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 103,600 people
• By 2030: 103,298 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 100,607 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 94,280 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 77,103 · -25.6%
• By 2100: 54,405 · -47.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.5% · R 72.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+27.9 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.91%
• Current HPI: 171.6878
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+37.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $94,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Listed $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Coming Soon $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $557 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.