315 E Park Dr · Tonawanda Town, NY 14150

$200,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1943 0.37 ac lot $120/sqft · 30% below area Est $286k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dreams Made Real! Ever think you would find a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home at this price? Town of Tonawanda cape cod with golf course views. This home boasts and architectural shingled roof and vinyl siding to avoid exterior maintenance for years to come. Electric service and circuit breaker panel recently updated. Three bedrooms and two full baths, including a primary en-suite can be found on the first floor. The kitchen features white shaker cabinets with butcher block counters, along with stainless steel appliances. Large family room with fireplace and formal dining room complete the first floor. You can find a 4th bedroom and attic on the second floor.

Key facts

• Vinyl siding
• Golf course views
• 0.37 acre lot

Tags

• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• ARCHITECTURAL SHINGLED ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• UPDATED ELECTRIC SERVICE
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.1% in Tonawanda Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 10859% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $135k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $182,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.67%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,214
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -30.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
250 Dupont Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,508 (-9%)	7mo	$220,000	$146	49
139 Dunlop Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,617 (-3%)	22mo	$210,000	$130	40
286 Oakridge Ave	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,586 (-5%)	23mo	$311,000	$196	39
243 School St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-6%)	20mo	$232,000	$149	38
174 Desmond Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,524 (-8%)	22mo	$349,980	$230	38
867 Riverview Blvd	0.43mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,442 (-13%)	23mo	$220,000	$153	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,476
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $75,716
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,312 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,478/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,800

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $518	-5% $461	+0% $405	+5% $348	+10% $291
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $313	+0% $405	+5% $496	+10% $587
Rate	-1.0pp $505	-0.5pp $456	base $405	+0.5pp $353	+1.0pp $300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	17d	1	0.71mi
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	24d	1	0.90mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	24d	1	1.12mi
49 Tulane Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	17d	1	1.25mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	2d	1	1.26mi
172 Tremont Ave Kenmore, NY	3.0	1.5	1569	$2,500	$1.59	11d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    listed $1,825
15. 2026-04-14
    price $200,000 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Dreams Made Real! Ever think you would find a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home at this price? Town of Tonawanda cape cod with golf course views. This home boasts and architectural shingled roof and vinyl siding to avoid exterior maintenance for years to come. Electric service and circuit breaker panel recently updated. Three bedrooms and two full baths, including a primary en-suite can be found on the first floor. The kitchen features white shaker cabinets with butcher block counters, along with stainless steel appliances. Large family room with fireplace and formal dining room complete the first floor. You can find a 4th bedroom and attic on the second floor.

16. 2026-02-20
    listed $215,000 Active 659-char remark

    Show marketing remark (659 chars)

    Dreams Made Real! Ever think you would find a 4 bedroom, 2 bath home at this price? Town of Tonawanda cape cod with golf course views. This home boasts and architectural shingled roof and vinyl siding to avoid exterior maintenance for years to come. Electric service and circuit breaker panel recently updated. Three bedrooms and two full baths, including a primary en-suite can be found on the first floor. The kitchen features white shaker cabinets with butcher block counters, along with stainless steel appliances. Large family room with fireplace and formal dining room complete the first floor. You can find a 4th bedroom and attic on the second floor.

17. 2023-08-02
    soldstatus $135,000
18. 2019-11-30
    soldstatus $41,153 Closed Sale or Rented 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    This single family home is in an excellent location. Parking pad for 2 cars - No garage.

19. 2019-07-23
    status Pending Sale 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    This single family home is in an excellent location. Parking pad for 2 cars - No garage.

20. 2019-07-19
    listed $55,000 Active 88-char remark

    Show marketing remark (88 chars)

    This single family home is in an excellent location. Parking pad for 2 cars - No garage.

21. 2018-09-13
    historical
22. 2018-09-10
    status Active
23. 2018-07-09
    status Pending Sale
24. 2018-06-13
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,478 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,478 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,478
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,220
• − Management: −$2,220
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $1,808
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$434
• After-tax cash flow: $4,422/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda Town

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda Town, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 63,948
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-96.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed for Rent $1,825 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $200,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $215,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-30 Sold (MLS) $41,153 WNYREIS
• 2019-07-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-07-19 Listed $55,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-09-13 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2018-09-10 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2018-07-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-06-13 Listed $55,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,478 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.