8255 E Kiva Ave #451 · Mesa, AZ 85209

$265,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · Condo public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1995 $291/mo HOA · 13% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming and well-maintained 2 bed, 2 bath home in a desirable active adult community in Mesa. This inviting residence features an open-concept floorplan with a spacious living area, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen offers abundant cabinetry, generous counter space, and a functional layout that flows seamlessly to the dining and living areas. The primary suite includes dual sinks, ample storage, and a walk-in shower, creating a comfortable and practical retreat. A secondary bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or a home office. Enjoy indoor-outdoor living with a covered patio overlooking a lush, greenbelt-style setting, perfect for relaxing mornin

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Covered patio
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• COVERED PATIO
• GREENBELT-STYLE SETTING
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features recorded by assessor
• HOA & community: Association with annual and monthly fees; Annual association fee and a separate monthly fee; Association covers roof repair and replacement, insurance, exterior and grounds maintenance, front yard maintenance, and trash; Community amenities include pool, golf, pickleball, lake, community spa (heated), community media room, tennis courts, biking/walking paths, and fitness center; No visible truck/trailer/RV/boat rule

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 open parking space; Direct access parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Patio home; Attached property; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yard; Grass in back yard; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Full bathroom in primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Neely Traditional Academy (math 83% / reading 81%, grade A+, #10 of 1,109 statewide, top 1%, 805 students, 17% FRL); Desert Ridge Jr. High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #62 of 218 statewide, top 29%, 973 students, 26% FRL); Desert Ridge High (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #136 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 2,284 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 171 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,703 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-6,520
• Equity at exit: $96,588

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $15,670
• Equity at exit: $133,231

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 171
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,157 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,233/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$291
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,397

Max offer price $231,468

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-40	-5% $-115	+0% $-190	+5% $-265	+10% $-340
Rent	-10% $-360	-5% $-275	+0% $-190	+5% $-105	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-56	-0.5pp $-122	base $-190	+0.5pp $-258	+1.0pp $-328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8438 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1363	$2,300	$1.69	26d	1	0.22mi
2311 S Farnsworth Dr #85 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1332	$3,300	$2.48	5d	1	0.33mi
2064 S Farnsworth Dr #25 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,595	$1.58	23d	1	0.33mi
7950 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1228	$1,995	$1.62	25d	1	0.36mi
2223 S Gordon Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$2,250	$1.76	26d	1	0.65mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1028 Mesa, AZ	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,500	$1.46	45d	1	0.66mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #1129 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	748	$3,200	$4.28	7d	1	0.78mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #300 Mesa, AZ	1.0	1.0	764	$2,000	$2.62	20d	1	0.78mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	26d	1	0.87mi
8865 E Baseline Rd #555 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$3,900	$2.81	21d	1	0.87mi
8433 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,526	$2.70	0d	1	0.92mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 94B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$3,702	$4.01	26d	1	1.09mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 3B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	976	$1,606	$1.65	16d	1	1.09mi
2206 S Ellsworth Rd Unit 101B Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	924	$1,555	$1.68	45d	1	1.09mi
8462 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1473	$1,995	$1.35	45d	1	1.20mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,390	$1.32	26d	1	1.25mi
8915 E Guadalupe Rd Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	971	$1,390	$1.43	5d	11	1.25mi
2821 S Skyline #157 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,200	$1.53	6d	1	1.34mi
2821 S Skyline #127 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.5	1438	$2,350	$1.63	45d	1	1.36mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1145	$1,575	$1.37	26d	1	1.37mi
9233 E Neville Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1142	$1,575	$1.38	16d	3	1.37mi
9335 E Baseline Rd Mesa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$1,745	$1.50	0d	12	1.40mi
8843 E Pampa Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$2,050	$1.51	6d	1	1.43mi
9233 E Neville Ave #1088 Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,850	$1.75	7d	1	1.43mi
8852 E Plana Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,995	$1.47	45d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $291 · $3,492/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 1007-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $265,000 Active 1007-char remark
3. 1998-11-06
   soldstatus $105,000
4. 1995-05-12
   soldstatus $91,984

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,749 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$516/yr (+$43/mo · 41.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$1,233
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,071
• − Management: −$2,071
• − HOA: −$3,492
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$6,861
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,647
• After-tax cash flow: $-631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+188.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2026-06-03 Sold (MLS) $265,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $265,000 ARMLS
• 1998-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $91,984 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,233 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.