18665 Shauna Danielle Dr · Woodbranch, TX 77357

$269,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,121 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $63/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two-Story Living with All Bedrooms Upstairs and Open Layout The Discovery is a spacious two-story home offering 2,121 square feet with 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. All bedrooms are located upstairs, including a private primary suite with a walk-in closet and en suite bath, along with a convenient Jack and Jill bathroom. The main level features an open-concept design with a modern kitchen showcasing granite countertops, a large island, soft close cabinets and drawers, and stainless steel appliances, seamlessly connecting to the dining and living areas. Located in The Landing Community, this home offers functional design and modern comfort in a welcoming neighborhood settin

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Two-story home
• Large island

Tags

• TWO-STORY HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: The Landing CAI homeowners association; Annual association fee of $750

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Subdivision setting; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (15.5 x 12); Bedroom on second level (11 x 10); Bedroom on second level (11 x 10); Bedroom on second level (10 x 10); Family room on first level (16 x 14.5)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Pantry; Self-closing cabinet doors and drawers; Tub/shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. The $269,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,061.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney El (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 642 students, 89% FRL); Keefer Crossing Middle (math 35% / reading 31%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,213 students, 81% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 986 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $235,310 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,061
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18929 Lucas Michael Way	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	0mo	$298,290	$141	97
18913 Lucas Michael Way	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,121 (0%)	1mo	$289,290	$136	96
22470 Kinley St	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,084 (-2%)	1mo	$342,451	$164	93
18906 Lucas Michael Way	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,218 (+5%)	0mo	$295,290	$133	87
18514 Karlynn St	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,220 (+5%)	2mo	$309,640	$139	87
18522 Karlynn St	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,214 (+4%)	1mo	$315,495	$143	87
18885 Lucas Michael Way	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+7%)	1mo	$295,990	$131	83
18399 Christine Elizabeth Ln	0.13mi	4/3.0	1,997 (-6%)	1mo	$331,062	$166	81
18334 Landing Meadows Ln	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,180 (+3%)	2mo	$282,490	$130	74
18668 Presswood Way Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,255 (+6%)	1mo	$279,540	$124	72
18857 Lucas Michael Way	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-14%)	1mo	$272,790	$149	68
18870 Lucas Michael Way	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-14%)	2mo	$272,540	$149	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-72,060
• Equity at exit: $44,591

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-109,595
• Equity at exit: $25,857

Cash invested: $83,737 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,353 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,486/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,696

Max offer price $259,877

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-167	+0% $-271	+5% $-374	+10% $-477
Rent	-10% $-457	-5% $-364	+0% $-271	+5% $-178	+10% $-85
Rate	-1.0pp $-120	-0.5pp $-195	base $-271	+0.5pp $-348	+1.0pp $-427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,765
• Closing costs: $8,972
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18036 Trepito Ave New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,950	$1.11	3d	1	1.26mi
18005 Pizzone Ln New Caney, TX	4.0	2.5	1980	$1,899	$0.96	19d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $269,990 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,990 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,990 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,990 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,990 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $269,990 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,752
• − Property taxes: −$4,486
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,259
• − Management: −$2,259
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$8,700
• Taxable loss: −$8,470
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,033
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 85/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a spacious layout and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodbranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12243

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $289,790 HARMLS