Juniper Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$344,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · SingleFamily · 297 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4-5 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,170 Sq. Ft. The Juniper is a beautifully designed single-story home that balances openness and comfort. With its thoughtful layout, split-bedroom design, and inviting flow, The Juniper delivers the best of single-level living-flexible, effortless, and ready to fit the way you live. Entering the home, you're greeted by a tasteful front hallway that leads directly into the open main living areas. The great room, casual dining area, and kitchen come together in a seamless flow, forming the heart of the home. The kitchen features a large island and spacious walk-in pantry, while the family room offers easy access to the covered patio, creating a natural connection between indoor and outdoor living. Additional personalization options include a fireplace in the great room or an extended covered patio for outdoor gatherings. Practical details like the two-car garage and central laundry room make daily living easy and efficient. Toward the front of the home, two secondary bedrooms share a full bath, allowing flexibility for guests, family, or a home office setup. Tucked away behind the kitchen, a flex space, full bath, and a third bedroom offer additional space. With the option to convert the flex space into a fifth bedroom or study, homeowners can make this space their own.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Spa-inspired bath
• Casual dining area

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• CASUAL DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• SPA-INSPIRED BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $344,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $401,838.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $345k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-503 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $329k (4.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.3% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 3403 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,824 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.37%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,838
• List price: $344,990
• Delta: -14.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27034 Flower Isle Ln	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,262 (+4%)	2mo	$375,315	$166	82
4959 Shimmer Side Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,948 (-10%)	0mo	$305,000	$157	74
4960 Pismo Ray Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,412 (+11%)	1mo	$284,999	$118	70
4784 Luna Landing Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,168 (-0%)	2mo	$335,990	$155	65
5065 Marcasca Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,102 (-3%)	2mo	$331,990	$158	63
27103 Blue Pool Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,134 (-2%)	0mo	$299,888	$141	62
5806 Havana Mist Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,134 (-2%)	2mo	$305,000	$143	59
4680 Peony Green Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,056 (-5%)	2mo	$343,990	$167	58
4605 Green Arobol Ln	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,430 (+12%)	1mo	$339,990	$140	48
1028 Open Sky Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,448 (+13%)	0mo	$400,000	$163	37
4709 Bakers Landing Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,865 (-14%)	1mo	$349,407	$187	36
4632 Cleo Day Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,859 (-14%)	2mo	$299,990	$161	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-105,556
• Equity at exit: $59,915

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-165,606
• Equity at exit: $34,744

Cash invested: $112,514 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 263 active · 72 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $345,990 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: 48% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 3403
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,878 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,107
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$502 /mo · $6,028/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,515

Max offer price $329,024

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-225	-5% $-364	+0% $-503	+5% $-642	+10% $-781
Rent	-10% $-731	-5% $-617	+0% $-503	+5% $-390	+10% $-276
Rate	-1.0pp $-301	-0.5pp $-401	base $-503	+0.5pp $-607	+1.0pp $-713

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,459
• Closing costs: $12,055
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4946 Skybluff Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2410	$2,650	$1.10	28d	1	0.18mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	0.31mi
4806 Sand Clouds Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2752	$3,095	$1.12	2d	1	0.34mi
4985 Blue Beetle Ridge Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2816	$3,150	$1.12	13d	1	0.38mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	93d	1	0.43mi
1496 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2135	$2,500	$1.17	28d	1	0.45mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Unit 315 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,418	$1.62	0d	1	0.52mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,500	$1.37	2d	1	0.52mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,949	$2.09	13d	24	0.52mi
4633 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2680	$3,995	$1.49	73d	1	0.56mi
4696 Peony Green Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2156	$2,595	$1.20	19d	1	0.58mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	23d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2116	$3,050	$1.44	4d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	70d	1	0.59mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	39d	1	0.59mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Unit 27327 Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	0d	1	0.71mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	93d	1	0.77mi
550 Long Beach Bay Dr Katy, TX	5.0	3.5	2788	$3,200	$1.15	2d	1	0.95mi
409 Aurora Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1964	$2,100	$1.07	21d	1	1.00mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	66d	1	1.02mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	0d	1	1.02mi
26123 Venus Trap Trl Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1785	$2,200	$1.23	8d	1	1.06mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	93d	1	1.09mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,035	$1.32	21d	1	1.11mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$3,850	$1.79	93d	1	1.12mi
3004 Fall Gold Ln Katy, TX	5.0	3.0	2156	$2,499	$1.16	41d	1	1.12mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	62d	1	1.13mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	62d	1	1.14mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,020	$1.31	21d	1	1.14mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,170	$1.22	21d	1	1.14mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,170	$1.22	21d	1	1.16mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	47d	1	1.17mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	73d	1	1.18mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,195	$1.24	21d	1	1.21mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	73d	1	1.22mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,120	$1.27	21d	1	1.25mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	93d	1	1.26mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,100	$1.28	21d	1	1.26mi
6303 Golden Seaton Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1908	$2,350	$1.23	11d	1	1.28mi
3083 Sunset Glory Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2279	$2,300	$1.01	42d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $344,990 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $344,990 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $344,990 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $344,990 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $344,990 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $344,990 Active 289 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $344,990 Active 288 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $344,990 Active 287 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $344,990 Active 286 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $344,990 Active 284 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $344,990 Active 282 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $344,990 Active 281 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $344,990 Active 280 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $344,990 Active 279 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $344,990 Active 278 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $344,990 Active 276 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $339,990 Active 275 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $339,990 Active 274 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $339,990 Active 273 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $339,990 Active 272 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $339,990 Active 271 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $339,990 Active 270 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $339,990 Active 269 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $339,990 Active 268 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $339,990 Active 267 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $339,990 Active 265 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $339,990 Active 264 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $339,990 Active 263 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $339,990 Active 262 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $339,990 Active 261 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $339,990 Active 260 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $339,990 Active 259 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $339,990 Active 258 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $339,990 Active 257 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $339,990 Active 256 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $339,990 Active 255 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $339,990 Active 254 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $339,990 Active 252 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $339,990 Active 250 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $339,990 Active 249 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $339,990 Active 246 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $339,990 Active 245 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $339,990 Active 244 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $339,990 Active 243 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $339,990 Active 237 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,990 Active 236 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,990 Active 235 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,990 Active 232 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,990 Active 231 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $339,990 Active 230 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,509
• − Property taxes: −$6,028
• − Insurance: −$2,009
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,763
• − Management: −$2,763
• − Depreciation: −$11,690
• Taxable loss: −$13,223
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,174
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern design and well-maintained features. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert King El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $326,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $324,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $329,990 Zillow