9916 Ethel St · Gibsonton, FL 33534

$99,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1954 5,680 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Agents see realtor remarks for showing and offer instructions. NICE HOME THAT HAD BEEN REMODELED BUT HAS BEEN ABUSED AND NEEDS TLC AND REPAIRS. NICE LARGE DETACHED GARAGE OR WORKSHOP. FENCED YARD. CALL TODAY.

Key facts

• 5
• 680 sq ft lot
• Zoned residential

Tags

• 5
• 680 SQ FT LOT
• ZONED RESIDENTIAL
• SINGLE-FAMILY CONVENTIONAL
• NINE UNITS ACRE
• BUILDABLE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned RSC-9; Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Total building area approximately 1,252 square feet (public records); Living area approximately 1,044 square feet (public records)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No HOA or association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details listed
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; Basic/High-speed internet available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; West-facing
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a lot of about 0.13 acres
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 71 feet

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $933 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $99k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#479 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $99k implies a 115% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.86%
• DSCR: 3.62
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $57,663
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.91×
• Total profit: $191,558
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33534

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,984/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $933

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,459

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10113 Candleberry Woods Ln Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,900	$1.33	24d	1	0.49mi
8825 Oak St Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1086	$2,500	$2.30	24d	1	0.68mi
11525 Southern Creek Dr Gibsonton, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,495	$1.73	14d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-17
   listed $99,000 Active
2. 2009-04-06
   soldstatus $46,000 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Agents see realtor remarks for showing and offer instructions. NICE HOME THAT HAD BEEN REMODELED BUT HAS BEEN ABUSED AND NEEDS TLC AND REPAIRS. NICE LARGE DETACHED GARAGE OR WORKSHOP. FENCED YARD. CALL TODAY.

3. 2009-01-12
   listed $46,900 208-char remark

   Show marketing remark (208 chars)

   Agents see realtor remarks for showing and offer instructions. NICE HOME THAT HAD BEEN REMODELED BUT HAS BEEN ABUSED AND NEEDS TLC AND REPAIRS. NICE LARGE DETACHED GARAGE OR WORKSHOP. FENCED YARD. CALL TODAY.

4. 2006-07-07
   soldstatus $123,000 136-char remark

   Show marketing remark (136 chars)

   Nice home that has totally been remodeled. Comfortable and cozy. New privacy fence, nice big yard. Close to schools and Super Wal-Mart.

5. 2006-07-07
   soldstatus $123,000

   Show marketing remark (136 chars)

   Nice home that has totally been remodeled. Comfortable and cozy. New privacy fence, nice big yard. Close to schools and Super Wal-Mart.

6. 2006-05-15
   listed $119,900 136-char remark

   Show marketing remark (136 chars)

   Nice home that has totally been remodeled. Comfortable and cozy. New privacy fence, nice big yard. Close to schools and Super Wal-Mart.

7. 2004-11-18
   soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,984
• − Insurance: −$5,614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,534
• − Management: −$2,534
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $10,585
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,540
• After-tax cash flow: $8,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gibsonton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #8752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gibsonton, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 17,740
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,740
• Household income: $80,484
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 36% Two or more races 23% Black 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.07%
• Current HPI: 323.4367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+41.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-06 Sold (MLS) $46,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-12 Listed $46,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-07 Sold (MLS) $123,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-15 Listed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,984 · +12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.