St. Augustine Plan · Ellenton, FL 34222

$239,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,441 sqft · Manufactured · 36 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Colony Cove, a 55+ age-qualified, active and vibrant community where you can find yourself in your dream home. This stunning, brand-new Skyline Home features the highly coveted St. Augustine floor plan, spanning 1,460 sq. ft. of masterfully designed living space. This rare 2-car garage home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, blending an inviting open-concept layout with soaring ceilings to create a bright, sophisticated atmosphere throughout. The heart of the home is a chef-inspired island kitchen, offering an expansive workspace and premium storage that makes both daily living and entertaining an absolute breeze. For relaxation, the spacious owner's

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Six swimming pools
• Walk in shower

Tags

• ST AUGUSTINE FLOOR PLAN
• CHEF INSPIRED ISLAND KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS OWNER'S SUITE
• DUAL VANITIES
• WALK IN SHOWER
• SIX SWIMMING POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Listing last modified: 2026-04-22
• Financial info: List price $191,999

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan; Single-family plan (St. Augustine)
• Exterior features: Address: 101 Amsterdam Ave, Ellenton, FL 34222

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (St. Augustine plan); Approximately 1,441 living area

🏗️ New construction. The $239,800 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $207,504.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn Elementary School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 551 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,726 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,504
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
99 Meadow Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-3%)	4mo	$120,000	$85	74
77 Spoonbill Ln	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-6%)	2mo	$140,000	$104	70
137 Osprey Cir	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-6%)	3mo	$190,000	$141	65
51 Partridge Ave	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,318 (-8%)	2mo	$233,000	$177	63
159 Osprey Cir Unit na	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-10%)	4mo	$181,000	$140	57
3449 71st Ave E	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-3%)	1mo	$268,000	$191	57
100 Whipporwill Ct	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,606 (+12%)	2mo	$150,000	$93	56
3445 71st Ave E	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (+3%)	4mo	$240,000	$162	54
158 Nightingale Cir	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (-11%)	2mo	$185,000	$144	52
3108 Terra Siesta Blvd	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	0mo	$125,000	$100	45
3432 71st Ave E	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-10%)	4mo	$230,000	$177	43
3522 70th Ave E	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (-12%)	4mo	$245,000	$194	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,852
• Equity at exit: $30,940

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $17,810
• Equity at exit: $17,941

Cash invested: $58,101 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,247 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,088
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$259 /mo · $3,113/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,815

Max offer price $207,504

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $485	-5% $413	+0% $341	+5% $270	+10% $198
Rent	-10% $164	-5% $253	+0% $341	+5% $430	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $446	-0.5pp $394	base $341	+0.5pp $288	+1.0pp $233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,876
• Closing costs: $6,225
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	5d	1	0.50mi
2711 80th Ave E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,836	$1.84	5d	1	0.59mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$3,300	$3.46	3d	67	0.76mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,829	$2.46	5d	37	0.76mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,550	$1.53	5d	1	0.79mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	23d	1	0.94mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,295	$1.84	5d	1	1.00mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	16d	1	1.02mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	25d	1	1.05mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	25d	1	1.22mi
1143 Riverscape St Unit A Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$6,500	$3.72	16d	1	1.28mi
4212 Long Lake Way Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	25d	1	1.28mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$3,139	$3.07	5d	15	1.41mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,623
• − Property taxes: −$3,113
• − Insurance: −$1,038
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,157
• − Management: −$2,157
• − Depreciation: −$6,036
• Taxable income: $842
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$202
• After-tax cash flow: $3,894/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B