Plan 1675 Modeled Plan · Tomball, TX 77377

$248,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily · 712 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Extra storage space
• Low-e windows

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• 6-PANEL INTERIOR DOORS

🏗️ New construction. The $248,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,067.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-464 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 712 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $219,115 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 712 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.23%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,067
• List price: $248,995
• Delta: -21.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18207 Sessile Oak Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,675 (0%)	10mo	$269,995	$161	78
22110 Heartwood Elm Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+6%)	8mo	$322,858	$181	78
18211 Spruce Cottage Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,675 (0%)	1mo	$282,771	$169	77
22430 Birch Bud Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,675 (0%)	7mo	$269,995	$161	76
18207 Yaupon Bough Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+6%)	8mo	$321,990	$180	72
22606 Rosy Heights Trl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+0%)	2mo	$259,900	$155	65
17703 Chartertree Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-1%)	1mo	$278,900	$169	64
22539 Royal Pecan Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+6%)	4mo	$256,473	$144	60
18902 Misty Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+6%)	1mo	$415,000	$233	59
22434 Birch Bud Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+10%)	8mo	$289,993	$158	58
18615 Scarlet Meadow Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,783 (+6%)	0mo	$280,000	$157	52
22607 Rising Rosehill Ln	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,816 (+8%)	8mo	$299,990	$165	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-87,665
• Equity at exit: $47,574

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-139,199
• Equity at exit: $27,587

Cash invested: $89,339 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,786/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,791

Max offer price $251,961

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,767
• Closing costs: $9,572
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22406 Birch Bud Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,299	$1.24	3d	1	0.34mi
21027 Twining Rose Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,049	$1.27	5d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $248,995 Active 712 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $248,995 Active 711 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $248,995 Active 710 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,995 Active 709 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,995 Active 707 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,995 Active 706 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $248,995 Active 703 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $248,995 Active 702 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $248,995 Active 701 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $248,995 Active 698 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $248,995 Active 697 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $248,995 Active 696 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $248,995 Active 695 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $248,995 Active 694 DOM
15. 2025-12-27
    price $248,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

16. 2025-12-09
    price $246,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

17. 2025-12-01
    price $244,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

18. 2025-11-18
    price $242,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

19. 2025-11-10
    price $237,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

20. 2025-07-26
    price $235,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

21. 2025-06-12
    price $240,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

22. 2025-05-17
    price $250,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

23. 2025-05-02
    price $260,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

24. 2025-02-01
    price $265,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

25. 2024-11-01
    status Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

26. 2024-10-01
    historical 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

27. 2024-09-04
    status Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

28. 2024-09-04
    price $263,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

29. 2024-08-01
    historical 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

30. 2024-07-13
    price $273,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

31. 2024-06-13
    price $276,995 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

32. 2024-05-01
    listed $281,995 Active 457-char remark

    Show marketing remark (457 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Large kitchen island * Kitchen USB charging receptacle * Den * Dedicated laundry room * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Granite kitchen countertops * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,873
• − Property taxes: −$4,786
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,116
• − Management: −$2,116
• − Depreciation: −$9,282
• Taxable loss: −$11,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,716
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Tomball, TX is in excellent condition with recent updates and a move-in-ready appearance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances both resale and rental appeal
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances both resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 444.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $248,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $246,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $244,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $242,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $237,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $235,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $240,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $250,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $260,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $265,995 Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-10-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $263,995 Zillow
• 2024-08-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-07-13 Price Changed $273,995 Zillow
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $276,995 Zillow
• 2024-05-01 Listed $281,995 Zillow