Is Plan 1675 Modeled Plan in Tomball, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.3% cap rate and $-521/mo modeled cash flow at a $250,995 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Plan 1675 Modeled Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,134/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 32.8

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.6/30.0
Schools +5.3/10.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +3.8/5.0
Rent growth +2.3/5.0
1% rule +1.7/10.0
DSCR +0.9/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$250,995

Plan 1675 Modeled Plan · Tomball, TX 77377

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily · 763 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 12% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

Large kitchen island
Extra storage space
Low-e windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $251k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-521 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (2.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (15.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $213k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.0% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Rosehill El (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 695 students, 56% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 26% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 905 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 763 days — a 12% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $213,363 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 763 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.67% ✗
Cap rate: 4.34%
Cash-on-cash: -6.99%
DSCR: 0.69
GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $319,254
List price: $250,995
Delta: -21.38%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22110 Heartwood Elm Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+6%)	9mo	$322,858	$181	76
18211 Spruce Cottage Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,675 (0%)	2mo	$282,771	$169	76
22430 Birch Bud Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,675 (0%)	8mo	$269,995	$161	75
18207 Yaupon Bough Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,784 (+6%)	10mo	$321,990	$180	70
18314 Hidden Dahlia Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+6%)	1mo	$281,053	$158	67
22606 Rosy Heights Trl	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+0%)	4mo	$259,900	$155	64
17703 Chartertree Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-1%)	3mo	$278,900	$169	62
22539 Royal Pecan Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+6%)	5mo	$256,473	$144	59
18902 Misty Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+6%)	2mo	$415,000	$233	58
22434 Birch Bud Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+10%)	10mo	$289,993	$158	57
18615 Scarlet Meadow Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,783 (+6%)	2mo	$280,000	$157	50
22607 Rising Rosehill Ln	0.61mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,816 (+8%)	10mo	$299,990	$165	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -31.8%
Equity multiple: -0.02×
Total profit: $-91,119
Equity at exit: $47,602

10-year hold

IRR: -57.2%
Equity multiple: -0.63×
Total profit: $-146,084
Equity at exit: $27,603

Cash invested: $89,391 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 28 active · 17 under contract
Months of supply: 9.3 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $289,850 ($166/sqft)
Median days on market: 80 d
This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +14.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77377

Home prices YoY: -24.5%
Rents YoY: -0.7%
Active inventory: 905
Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,134 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,674
Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,789/yr
Insurance: −$133
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
Net cashflow: $-521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,793

Max offer price $243,904

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-300	-5% $-410	+0% $-521	+5% $-631	+10% $-741
Rent	-10% $-689	-5% $-605	+0% $-521	+5% $-436	+10% $-352
Rate	-1.0pp $-360	-0.5pp $-440	base $-521	+0.5pp $-603	+1.0pp $-688

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $79,814
Closing costs: $9,578
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22406 Birch Bud Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,199	$1.19	7d	1	0.34mi
21027 Twining Rose Ln Tomball, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,799	$1.12	21d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $250,995 Active 763 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $250,995 Active 761 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $250,995 Active 760 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $250,995 Active 759 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $250,995 Active 758 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $250,995 Active 755 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $250,995 Active 753 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $250,995 Active 752 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $250,995 Active 750 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $250,995 Active 748 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $250,995 Active 747 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $250,995 Active 746 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $250,995 Active 745 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $250,995 Active 744 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $250,995 Active 742 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $250,995 Active 741 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $250,995 Active 740 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $250,995 Active 739 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $250,995 Active 738 DOM
2026-07-14

price $250,995 Active 737 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $248,995 Active 737 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $248,995 Active 736 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $248,995 Active 735 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $248,995 Active 734 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $248,995 Active 733 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $248,995 Active 731 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $248,995 Active 730 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $248,995 Active 729 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $248,995 Active 728 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $248,995 Active 727 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $248,995 Active 726 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $248,995 Active 725 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $248,995 Active 724 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $248,995 Active 723 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $248,995 Active 722 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $248,995 Active 721 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $248,995 Active 720 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $248,995 Active 718 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $248,995 Active 715 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $248,995 Active 712 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $248,995 Active 711 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $248,995 Active 710 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $248,995 Active 709 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $248,995 Active 707 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $248,995 Active 706 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $248,995 Active 703 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $248,995 Active 702 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $248,995 Active 701 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $248,995 Active 698 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $248,995 Active 697 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,604
− Mortgage interest: −$17,883
− Property taxes: −$4,789
− Insurance: −$1,596
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,048
− Management: −$2,048
− Depreciation: −$9,287
Taxable loss: −$12,049

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,892
After-tax cash flow: $-3,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Tomball, TX is in excellent condition with recent updates and a move-in-ready appearance.

Value-add opportunities

Both Smart home integration — Enhances both resale and rental appeal ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
Both Smart security system — Improves safety and rental appeal ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rosehill El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Tomball Int C TX #347/1,662 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Tomball H S B+ TX #111/1,632 Nat'l #2,009/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Tomball ISD
NCES district ID: 4842960
Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $86,552
Composite: 58.32/100
National rank: #1014
State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tomball

Score: 75/100
State rank: #155
US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population: 113,991
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 41,680
Household income: $129,327
Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
Current HPI: 235.031
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

2025-12-27 Price Changed $248,995 Zillow
2025-12-09 Price Changed $246,995 Zillow
2025-12-01 Price Changed $244,995 Zillow
2025-11-18 Price Changed $242,995 Zillow
2025-11-10 Price Changed $237,995 Zillow
2025-07-26 Price Changed $235,995 Zillow
2025-06-12 Price Changed $240,995 Zillow
2025-05-17 Price Changed $250,995 Zillow
2025-05-02 Price Changed $260,995 Zillow
2025-02-01 Price Changed $265,995 Zillow
2024-11-01 Relisted — Zillow
2024-10-01 Delisted — Zillow
2024-09-04 Relisted — Zillow
2024-09-04 Price Changed $263,995 Zillow
2024-08-01 Delisted — Zillow
2024-07-13 Price Changed $273,995 Zillow
2024-06-13 Price Changed $276,995 Zillow
2024-05-01 Listed $281,995 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…