325 Kelly Rd Lot R16 · Vernon, CT 06066

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Listing agent is related to seller. This is a 55 and older community and all buyers/occupants must fill out an application with Vernon Village.

Key facts

• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Assessed value: $9,300

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water system; Public sewer connected; Above-ground fuel tank
• Home design: Single-family home; Completed, never occupied (new construction)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Other construction description; No foundation listed
• Exterior features: Open lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Oven/Range; Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; Propane-fueled heating; Energy Star rated features
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Hot water system (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $610 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Vernon School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #97 of 153 in CT (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 81 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.79%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $22,300
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $81,740
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06066

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $311/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $892

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 143-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $311 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,438 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,127/yr (+$94/mo · 362.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$311
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,597
• − Management: −$1,597
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $5,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,357
• After-tax cash flow: $5,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vernon School District
• NCES district ID: 0904680
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,342
• Composite: 36.26/100
• National rank: #4704
• State rank: #97 of 153 in CT

Livability — Vernon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Tolland County · 46,815 people
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• Population (ZIP): 30,577
• Household income: $85,356
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1140.0

Population outlook (Capitol County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 1,063,519

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Capitol

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.9) · D 60.1% · R 38.2% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.25%
• Current HPI: 249.7888
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.73%
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $119,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

-5.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $311 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.