1713 Asbury Ln · Celina, TX 75009

$424,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,024 sqft · SingleFamily · 60 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,792 sqft lot $210/sqft · 13% below area Est $489k · 13% under $135/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE-IN READY! Entry opens to open family room with a wood mantel fireplace and adjacent home office with French door entry. Kitchen offers an island with built-in seating space, 5-burner gas cooktop and a corner walk-in pantry. Dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a wall of windows. Primary bathroom has French door entry with dual vanities, garden tub, glass enclosed shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Utility room just off the covered patio. Mud room leads to a rear two-car garage.

Key facts

• French door entry
• Dual vanities
• Wall of windows

Tags

• WOOD MANTEL FIREPLACE
• FRENCH DOOR ENTRY
• ISLAND WITH BUILT-IN SEATING
• CORNER WALK-IN PANTRY
• WALL OF WINDOWS
• DUAL VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $424k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $412k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2895 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($168k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($412k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $412,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.80%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $489,253
• List price: $424,900
• Delta: -13.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1708 Palo Duro Way	0.04mi	3/2.0	2,024 (0%)	6mo	$449,900	$222	93
1636 Palo Duro Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	2,024 (0%)	9mo	$502,900	$248	90
1701 Palo Duro Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	2,024 (0%)	14mo	$474,900	$235	85
2702 Biltmore Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	2,024 (0%)	14mo	$509,900	$252	84
1628 Palo Duro Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,993 (-2%)	14mo	$449,900	$226	82
1608 Palo Duro Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,993 (-2%)	13mo	$476,900	$239	82
2704 Biltmore Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,993 (-2%)	14mo	$502,900	$252	81
1709 Palo Duro Way	0.05mi	3/2.5	2,321 (+15%)	3mo	$464,900	$200	69
2728 Biltmore Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,273 (+12%)	14mo	$525,000	$231	55
2621 Hardwood Dr	0.70mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,050 (+1%)	1mo	$594,000	$290	54
2442 Plumeria Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,305 (+14%)	7mo	$525,000	$228	47
2512 Grinnel Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,196 (+8%)	10mo	$530,000	$241	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-63,461
• Equity at exit: $63,354

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-79,924
• Equity at exit: $36,738

Cash invested: $118,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2895
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,239 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,228
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$531 /mo · $6,374/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$890
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,888

Max offer price $424,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,225
• Closing costs: $12,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	1d	1	0.09mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$3,200	$1.14	24d	1	1.28mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	44d	1	1.34mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	19d	1	1.38mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	24d	1	1.44mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $424,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $424,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $424,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $424,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $424,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $424,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $424,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $424,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $424,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $424,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $424,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $424,900 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $424,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $424,900 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Entry opens to open family room with a wood mantel fireplace and adjacent home office with French door entry. Kitchen offers an island with built-in seating space, a 5-burner gas cooktop, and a corner walk-in pantry. Dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a wall of windows. Primary bathroom has French door entry with dual vanities, glass enclosed shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Utility room just off the covered patio. Mud room leads to a rear two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

15. 2026-04-29
    price $424,900 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Entry opens to open family room with a wood mantel fireplace and adjacent home office with French door entry. Kitchen offers an island with built-in seating space, a 5-burner gas cooktop, and a corner walk-in pantry. Dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a wall of windows. Primary bathroom has French door entry with dual vanities, glass enclosed shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Utility room just off the covered patio. Mud room leads to a rear two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

16. 2026-04-19
    listed $449,900 Active 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    MOVE-IN READY! Entry opens to open family room with a wood mantel fireplace and adjacent home office with French door entry. Kitchen offers an island with built-in seating space, 5-burner gas cooktop and a corner walk-in pantry. Dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a wall of windows. Primary bathroom has French door entry with dual vanities, garden tub, glass enclosed shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Utility room just off the covered patio. Mud room leads to a rear two-car garage.

17. 2026-04-15
    price $449,900 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Entry opens to open family room with a wood mantel fireplace and adjacent home office with French door entry. Kitchen offers an island with built-in seating space, a 5-burner gas cooktop, and a corner walk-in pantry. Dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a wall of windows. Primary bathroom has French door entry with dual vanities, glass enclosed shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Utility room just off the covered patio. Mud room leads to a rear two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

18. 2026-04-08
    listed $482,900 Active 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Entry opens to open family room with a wood mantel fireplace and adjacent home office with French door entry. Kitchen offers an island with built-in seating space, a 5-burner gas cooktop, and a corner walk-in pantry. Dining area with a wall of windows. Primary suite offers a wall of windows. Primary bathroom has French door entry with dual vanities, glass enclosed shower and a spacious walk-in closet. Secondary bedrooms with walk-in closets. Utility room just off the covered patio. Mud room leads to a rear two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,801
• − Property taxes: −$6,374
• − Insurance: −$2,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,069
• − Management: −$4,069
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$12,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$852
• After-tax cash flow: $4,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home in a well-maintained community offers a great value with no visible repairs needed and a fresh paint job can further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $424,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $424,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-19 Listed $449,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $449,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Listed $482,900 Zillow