17 Outer Banks Pl · Sacramento, CA 95835

$510,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2006 3,402 sqft lot $256/sqft · 9% below area Est $562k · 9% under $77/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to 17 Outer Banks Pl, Sacramento CA 95835. Nestled in The Hamptons - one of North Natomas' most desirable communities - this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom home offers 1,992 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Designed around a gorgeous open space park, this secluded retreat delivers the perfect blend of tranquility and convenience. Step through the front door into a warm, light-filled living room featuring elegant wood flooring and a cozy fireplace that sets the tone for the entire home. Continue through to the gourmet kitchen, where granite countertops, cherry wood cabinets, and a center island create a culinary haven. The adjoining family and din

Key facts

• Cherry wood flooring
• Cherry wood cabinets
• Secluded location

Tags

• CHERRY WOOD FLOORING
• LOW MAINTENANCE BACKYARD
• SECLUDED LOCATION
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• CHERRY WOOD CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $510k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (36.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (37.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $321k (37.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: H. Allen Hight Elementary (802 students, 59% FRL); Natomas Middle (662 students, 65% FRL); Inderkum High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 2,266 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($479k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $359k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $320,729 (37.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.86%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $562,262
• List price: $510,000
• Delta: -9.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3428 Shaker Way	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,917 (-4%)	1mo	$590,905	$308	76
1472 Jeannie Way	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+2%)	1mo	$600,000	$295	69
3419 Mas Amilos Way	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,021 (+2%)	0mo	$542,000	$268	69
3345 La Cadena Way	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,904 (-4%)	2mo	$565,000	$297	68
5225 Sun Chaser Way	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,870 (-6%)	2mo	$535,000	$286	63
180 Caravaggio Cir	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,776 (-11%)	1mo	$485,000	$273	59
5649 Harveston Way	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,223 (+12%)	2mo	$655,000	$295	57
8150 Gardini Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,175 (+9%)	2mo	$787,515	$362	56
5362 Seal Beach Way	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,137 (+7%)	1mo	$598,000	$280	55
141 Caravaggio Cir	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,200 (+10%)	0mo	$530,000	$241	54
5358 Admiral Bend Way	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,859 (-7%)	2mo	$520,000	$280	53
15 Bristle Bark Pl	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,238 (+12%)	0mo	$560,000	$250	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $177,128
• Equity at exit: $429,428

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $559,267
• Equity at exit: $895,890

Cash invested: $142,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,207 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax from tax record: −$505 /mo · $6,055/yr
• Insurance: −$212
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$674
• Net cashflow: $-1,060

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,549

Max offer price $322,739

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-771	-5% $-916	+0% $-1,060	+5% $-1,204	+10% $-1,349
Rent	-10% $-1,313	-5% $-1,187	+0% $-1,060	+5% $-933	+10% $-807
Rate	-1.0pp $-803	-0.5pp $-930	base $-1,060	+0.5pp $-1,192	+1.0pp $-1,327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $127,500
• Closing costs: $15,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5301 E Commerce Way #58104 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1315	$2,900	$2.21	3d	1	0.05mi
5421 Shennecock Way Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2561	$3,000	$1.17	12d	1	0.11mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,648	$1.98	18d	3	0.15mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,662	$2.00	25d	2	0.15mi
5301 E Commerce Way #34103 Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1774	$3,000	$1.69	0d	1	0.19mi
789 Greg Thatch Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,990	$1.50	4d	1	0.28mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	13d	1	0.29mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	0d	1	0.29mi
3606 Damora Ave Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.5	2362	$3,900	$1.65	45d	1	0.40mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	45d	1	0.48mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	4d	1	0.53mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	45d	1	0.56mi
100 Picasso Cir Sacramento, CA	4.0	3.0	2413	$3,950	$1.64	4d	1	0.59mi
3530 Callison Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2007	$3,000	$1.49	0d	1	0.61mi
3044 Enchanted Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,300	$1.70	0d	1	0.64mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	45d	2	0.90mi
5040 Kankakee Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	2454	$2,895	$1.18	4d	1	0.91mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	9d	1	0.93mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	45d	1	0.96mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	45d	1	1.03mi
4236 Bellwether Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.5	2282	$3,300	$1.45	0d	1	1.12mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	45d	1	1.32mi
301 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,750	$1.78	16d	1	1.34mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	0d	24	1.37mi
5350 Dunlay Dr #911 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,750	$1.81	3d	1	1.40mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	23d	2	1.40mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	19d	3	1.40mi
130 Penhow Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1618	$2,400	$1.48	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $510,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $510,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $510,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $510,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $510,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $510,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $510,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $510,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $510,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $510,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $510,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $510,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $510,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $510,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $520,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $520,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2018-09-24
    soldstatus $359,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,055 · $505/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,055 · $505/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,568
• − Property taxes: −$6,055
• − Insurance: −$4,052
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,079
• − Management: −$3,079
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$14,836
• Taxable loss: −$22,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,306
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2018-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $359,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,055 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.