28787 Via Roja · Murrieta, CA 92563

$269,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1972 4,356 sqft lot Est $363k · 26% under $87/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the desirable 55+ community of Spring Knolls in Murrieta! Located at 28787 Via Roja, this well-maintained manufactured home offers approximately 1,440 sq ft of comfortable living space with a spacious layout, abundant natural light, and plenty of potential to make it your own. MH on Permanent Foundation. OWN-THE-LAND Enjoy the benefits of active adult living with nearby shopping, dining, golf courses, medical facilities, wineries, and convenient freeway access all just minutes away. Spring Knolls is known for its welcoming atmosphere, community amenities, and prime Murrieta location. Whether you’re looking to downsize, invest, or enjoy a low-maintenance lifestyle, this is

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (annual fee); Association fee $1,044 annually (about $87/month); Senior community; Community name: Spring Knolls

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Disposal; Built-in range; Central air; Forced air heating (natural gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $491 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $266k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.0% in Murrieta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#279 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Murrieta Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #255 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $270k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.80%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $362,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38212 Via La Colina	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$345,000	$240	81
38619 Calle De La Siesta	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$390,000	$290	77
38171 Via La Colina	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,392 (-3%)	0mo	$138,000	$99	74
28925 Calle Alta	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$255,550	$177	74
38195 Via Taffia	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-5%)	2mo	$345,000	$252	74
29115 Via Princesa	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	5mo	$499,900	$331	73
28698 Via Princesa	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-10%)	2mo	$278,215	$215	70
38190 Camino Cinife	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	2mo	$500,000	$331	66
38069 Calle De Amor	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	3mo	$205,000	$131	59
37967 Via La Colina	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+5%)	0mo	$439,250	$291	58
38240 Calle Arrebol	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,632 (+13%)	4mo	$292,700	$179	58
38070 Via La Colina	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (-14%)	5mo	$379,900	$308	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-18,109
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,224
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92563

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,873 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,969/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$87
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $491

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,252

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $644	-5% $567	+0% $491	+5% $415	+10% $338
Rent	-10% $264	-5% $378	+0% $491	+5% $605	+10% $718
Rate	-1.0pp $627	-0.5pp $560	base $491	+0.5pp $421	+1.0pp $350

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39656 Columbia Union Dr Unit C Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,925	$2.08	25d	1	0.40mi
39668 Princeton Way Unit C Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,900	$2.06	5d	1	0.44mi
28221 Via Princesa Unit 4 Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,950	$1.95	44d	1	0.49mi
26137 Oakcreek Union Dr Unit C Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,950	$2.10	0d	1	0.55mi
39484 Via Montalvo Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1808	$6,500	$3.60	44d	1	0.56mi
26133 Williams Way Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,100	$2.20	44d	1	0.59mi
28611 Calle del Lago Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,975	$2.19	25d	1	0.61mi
28611 Calle Del Lago Unit c Murrieta, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,975	$2.19	25d	1	0.61mi
39875 Alpine Union St Unit B Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,795	$1.69	44d	1	0.62mi
29324 Calle Gaviota Murrieta, CA	3.0	3.0	1854	$3,150	$1.70	44d	1	0.65mi
39930 Whitewood Rd Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.0	1015	$2,413	$2.38	0d	11	0.66mi
39930 Alpine Union St Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,795	$1.69	0d	1	0.68mi
38245 Murrieta Hot Springs Rd Murrieta, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,828	$2.77	0d	24	0.96mi
40213 Calle Real Unit 40213 Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1427	$2,795	$1.96	5d	1	0.99mi
26900 Winchester Creek Ave Murrieta, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1315	$2,510	$1.91	44d	1	0.99mi
29677 Woodlands Ave Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1143	$2,700	$2.36	25d	1	1.06mi
39261 Delhaven St Murrieta, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	859	$2,694	$3.14	0d	18	1.07mi
25295 Shadescale Dr Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,950	$2.16	25d	1	1.09mi
40319 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1427	$2,900	$2.03	25d	1	1.14mi
40324 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.5	1336	$2,495	$1.87	5d	1	1.14mi
40358 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	3.0	3.0	1427	$2,795	$1.96	44d	1	1.16mi
39585 Oak Cliff Dr Temecula, CA	3.0	2.0	1052	$3,100	$2.95	0d	1	1.19mi
40419 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1427	$2,750	$1.93	5d	1	1.23mi
40444 Calle Real Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1574	$3,000	$1.91	44d	1	1.23mi
26314 Arboretum Way #3805 Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.0	1031	$2,295	$2.23	0d	1	1.39mi
26426 Arboretum Way #804 Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.0	890	$2,295	$2.58	44d	1	1.40mi
39824 Creative Dr Temecula, CA	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,980	$2.04	15d	1	1.43mi
26313 Arboretum Way Murrieta, CA	3.0	2.5	1372	$2,495	$1.82	5d	1	1.43mi
26396 Arboretum Way #2904 Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.0	890	$2,255	$2.53	3d	1	1.44mi
40021 Spring Place Ct Temecula, CA	3.0	2.5	1670	$3,850	$2.31	10d	1	1.44mi
26343 Arboretum Way #806 Murrieta, CA	2.0	2.0	1031	$2,300	$2.23	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $87 · $1,044/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $269,900 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-27
    listed $269,900 Active
15. 2004-10-15
    soldstatus $122,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,969 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,051 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 4.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,482
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,969
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,759
• − Management: −$2,759
• − HOA: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable income: $1,632
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$392
• After-tax cash flow: $5,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murrieta Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600029
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,615
• Composite: 53.42/100
• National rank: #3152
• State rank: #255 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Murrieta

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #279
• US rank: #9348

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murrieta, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 145,160
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 80,379
• Household income: $125,397
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1075.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Asian 13% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 17% Tagalog/Filipino 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.79%
• Current HPI: 341.728
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+121.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $269,900 SDMLS
• 2004-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,969 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.